The House of Representatives in the 118th Congress has been turbulent for the past 16 months, with significant recent developments looking to add to the tumult.
As the lower chamber of Congress dealt with early resignations and a bevy of speaker elections, it looked as though Republicans would struggle to hold on to their majority next year. But Democrats have had their share of frustrating moments in the minority, dampening expectations they could capitalize on the GOP’s struggles.
This week, three major developments have thrown a wrench in everyone’s plans to control the House.
A panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit ruled on Tuesday that the new congressional district map is unconstitutional due to being a racial gerrymander in violation of the equal protection clause.
The contested map includes two black-majority districts in compliance with a previous court order, which ruled the map used for the 2022 elections, which only had one black-majority district, violated the Voting Rights Act. Another battle at the Supreme Court over Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act appears likely.
As the newly passed map is struck down, which map will be used for the November elections appears uncertain. Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landry, a Republican, set May 15 as the deadline for the map to be used for the November elections to be finalized.
The map used in the election could affect control of the House, as the map that was set to be used would have likely given Democrats an additional seat in the Pelican State.
With Democratic state Sen. Tim Kennedy winning the special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District, a deep-blue district, on Tuesday, the GOP’s majority in the House has narrowed as special elections to fill Republican seats have not been held yet.
The GOP majority will narrow to 217 to 213 once Kennedy is sworn in, leaving Republicans with a two-vote majority.
Special elections to replace Republican members who have resigned are coming in the next several weeks, offering a reprieve to the increasingly slim majority. Races to replace former Reps. Kevin McCarthy, Bill Johnson, and Ken Buck are scheduled for May 21, June 11, and June 25, respectively.
As the makeup of the House is changing and its future makeup is being contested, the presiding officer over the chamber does not appear likely to change.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has threatened to force a vote on her motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), but unlike Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) motion to vacate McCarthy in October, her resolution is almost certain to fail.
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House Democratic leadership issued a statement on Tuesday saying it would vote to table the motion to vacate, arguing that “the time has come to turn the page on this chapter of Pro-Putin Republican obstruction.”
During McCarthy’s motion to vacate vote, all Democrats voted with eight Republicans to oust McCarthy from the speakership, paralyzing the chamber for three weeks as the GOP struggled to find a new speaker.