Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) could lose his House seat to a GOP challenger due to bucking President Donald Trump’s agenda, according to internal Republican polling. 

Massie, a fiscal conservative viewed as a GOP maverick, drew Trump’s ire earlier this year when he refused to back the president’s marquee “big, beautiful bill,” which was signed into law in July, over concerns it would increase federal debt. 

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Trump subsequently called for a primary challenge in Massie’s district, sharing a McLaughlin & Associates poll from his Truth Social account on Thursday that indicated the Kentucky lawmaker could be ousted from his seat, as his favorability rating has fallen to 43%, down from 54% in June. 

“Standing with Democrats and voting against President Trump’s tax cuts and policies has put Thomas Massie at odds with the Republican base,” the poll stated. “Three-in-five primary voters (57%) would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is endorsed and supported by President Trump.”

Massie acknowledged tensions with Trump during an interview with podcaster and comedian Theo Von in late June, blaming fallouts over his refusal to cozy up to the president. 

“I’ve been on his good side and I’ve been on his bad side. And it seems like every couple of years it flips,” he said. 

“There’s two forms of Trump derangement syndrome, though,” Massie continued. “There’s the kind where you hate him so much, it’s irrational. And even if he’s for something you support, you’d still be against him … [and] there’s the other version of Trump derangement syndrome, which is you love him so much, that when he goes against something he said he would do or he does something that’s against your principles, you change your own principles to support him.”

“I try not to have either of the Trump derangements,” he concluded. “Just be for the people of Kentucky.” 

Massie’s overall job approval slipped from 52% to 39% while his “re-elect score” decreased from 41% in June to 30%, leaving him a “low floor to stand on” ahead of the 2026 GOP primary, according to the poll. 

“Incumbents under 40% are considered vulnerable in a primary,” the poll reads. “His re-elect score is below 30% among critical primary voter segments, including conservatives (28%), pro-life voters (29%), evangelicals (27%), voters without a bachelor’s degree (27%), and seniors (22%).”

Pollsters credited MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC that reportedly spent $800,000 on a TV ad campaign attacking Massie in his district, for the apparent downturn in public opinion about the incumbent lawmaker. 

“MAGA Kentucky’s ad campaign has been extremely effective in driving up awareness and influencing voter opinions,” the poll stated. “The majority (53%) is less likely to vote for Thomas Massie based on what they have seen, read, or heard.”

Aside from targeting Trump over spending concerns due to the “big, beautiful bill,” Massie has expressed concern that the president’s allies at the Department of Justice are concealing evidence in the Epstein case, prompting backlash from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). 

Massie has also sparked controversy in the Republican camp for questioning U.S. ties to Israel and suggesting Trump superseded presidential authorities when he authorized military attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, which were backed by Israel. 

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Massie’s positioning on Israel made him the target of MAGA KY. The super PAC spent $1.56 million between June 27 and Aug. 4 on TV and digital advertisements opposing his reelection. 

The poll was taken from Aug. 10 to 12 among 500 likely Republican voters from Massie’s 4th Congressional District. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.4%.