The U.S. House of Representatives passed its budget plan on Feb. 25. The vote was 217-215, with all Democrats voting against the bill along with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY).
With the nominations and subsequent resignations of former Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), Republicans have their smallest House majority since 1931.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is currently President Donald Trump’s nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik passed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 30 by a 19-3 vote. The confirmation process has stalled, however, not because of Democrats dragging their feet, but because Stefanik represents a key vote in the Republican House.
Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) needed her vote to pass Tuesday’s budget plan, as a one-vote change would have resulted in a tie. The bill is key to Trump’s policy plans, which include border security and tax cuts.
While Trump may still need Stefanik in the House until the April 1 special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz, it seems the most important part of Trump’s congressional agenda is complete.
The Senate’s actions in the next week will indicate whether Stefanik was likely held back to help pass the budget bill. It would not be surprising to see the Senate hold off until early April, but the door has reopened for the possibility of a confirmation vote in the next few weeks.
If Stefanik left the House before April, Republicans would hold a razor-thin 217-215 majority. A single defector would spell doom for any Republican bill. Republicans must choose whether they want to pass more legislation before April or finish confirming Trump’s Cabinet as soon as possible.
Given the ease with which she passed her committee vote, Stefanik should not have trouble passing a floor vote when the time comes. When Republicans are ready, Stefanik should move through the rest of the process quickly.
Fortunately for House Republicans, Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz are all in relatively safe seats. After the special elections, Republicans should return to a 220-215 majority.
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If the Trump administration believes there is no rush to confirm Stefanik, she will likely remain in the House for the next month to vote on any necessary bills in that time frame.
Having an ambassador to the United Nations is important, but holding the House majority is arguably more important. Even if Stefanik is confirmed in mid-April, she will still have a majority of Trump’s term to carry out the administration’s policy goals.