Former President Donald Trump is going to announce his running mate soon. There are plenty of options, but one of the weaker ones whose name is still floating around would be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH).
It appears that Trump is leaning toward Vance. Donald Trump Jr., who has been openly touting Vance as his preferred selection, will be speaking the same day as the running mate, as will Trent Conaway, the mayor of East Palestine, Ohio. It is clear what appeals to Trump about Vance; political chameleon though he may be, his recent colors have been that of a MAGA Rust Belt Trump supporter. Whatever you think “Trumpism” may be, Vance is a disciple of it.
That happens to be the problem with Trump potentially selecting him. Just about everything Republican voters may like about Vance is what they already like about Trump. Vance is not going to have much appeal to voters beyond those who are already counted in Trump’s base and who are already planning on voting for him.
If the idea is that Vance can expand Trump’s Rust Belt appeal, then that also appears to be misplaced. Vance’s one and only election was Ohio’s open Senate race in 2022 when he defeated Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) by less than 7 points. Six years prior, Republican Rob Portman won that election by nearly 21 points, and Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) won by 25 points on the same ticket that Vance slipped by Ryan in a much closer call than anyone would like.
Vance is probably not going to be a liability to Trump; Trump does that well enough himself. But he does nothing to mitigate Trump’s liabilities or do anything other than overlap Trump’s strengths. There are worse picks: Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) appears to be out, as shooting a dog in the face is frowned upon among voters, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) would be a great pick if not for the massive logistic and political headaches surrounding both he and Trump being Florida residents.
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But there are also better picks. I have already made the case that Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) would be the best option, a happy warrior who would take the bite off of Democratic attacks that a Trump administration would be radical and vindictive. Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) would have a lesser, but similar effect on the ticket, serving as the milquetoast adult in the room in a similar vein as Mike Pence did for Trump in 2016.
Neither of those two could be defined by Democrats and media as Trump clones, especially Scott, who has carved out his own record and reputation in politics. Vance could be defined by Democrats and liberal media as just about anything they want, given his Never Trump to Forever Trump shift and his short political career. Combine that with him only having one subpar election performance under his belt and it is clear that Trump would be better served having Vance as an ally in the Senate than his running mate on the presidential ticket.