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Jun 23, 2025  |  
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Zach Halaschak


NextImg:The winners and losers of Republican tax bill so far

After weeks of work, House Republicans passed their $4 trillion tax and spending bill Thursday morning.

The centerpiece of the fiscal legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is extending and making permanent a tranche of tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire at the end of the year.

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But the bill also contains numerous provisions related to the border, energy, and national defense. Still, the Senate will now have its say about the legislation, and it is yet to be seen how much the upper chamber ends up amending the fiscal legislation.

This is a look at who benefited and who lost out, or at least didn’t achieve big wins, from the Republican reconciliation legislation.

The winners

SALT caucus

One of the biggest winners was undoubtedly the group of Republican representatives who pushed to raise the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions, known as the SALT cap, which had been imposed by the 2017 legislation.

Members of the so-called SALT Caucus, which includes Reps. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Young Kim (R-CA), and Nick LaLota (R-NY), played hardball in negotiations and threatened to withhold their votes on the bill up to nearly the last minute.

As a result, they were able to quadruple the current $10,000 cap to $40,000, subject to a $500,000 income cap. The concession was unpopular with fiscal hawks and rank-and-file Republicans in low-tax states, and the Senate will be closely watched to see what Republicans there do with the cap.

Gun rights advocates

Gun advocates notched a win in the legislation.

Of note, the legislation removes silencers from the definition of “firearm” under the National Firearms Act and eliminates the transfer tax on silencers.

“This represents a monumental victory for Second Amendment rights, eliminating burdensome regulations on the purchase of critical hearing protection devices,” said John Commerford, the executive director of the NRA Institute for Legislative Action. “The NRA thanks the House members who supported this bill and urges its swift passage in the U.S. Senate.”

Private equity

Private equity firms are undoubtedly happy on Thursday for something that House Republicans did not include in the legislation.

The bill does not end the carried interest “loophole,” as Trump called for. Carried interest is a kind of income that some investment firms earn while managing investors’ money. It is taxed at the rates on investment income, but critics say it should be taxed at the higher rates that apply to labor income.

“The president’s 2017 law struck the right balance on carried interest, and we’re pleased that the new legislation will encourage more long-term investment across America,” American Investment Council President and CEO Drew Maloney said earlier this month when it became clear the provision would not be included.

Despite the omission, the Senate could revise the legislation to include language to change the way carried interest is treated.

Anti-abortion advocates

There are also anti-abortion provisions in the “big, beautiful bill” that are being cheered by activists.

The legislation cuts funding to Planned Parenthood and prevents Obamacare plans that cover abortion from receiving cost-sharing reduction payments. It also includes adoption tax incentives and provides a temporary boost to the child tax credit, which are provisions that have been sought by those advocating family creation.

The bill boosts the child tax credit to $2,500 through 2028 and then indexes it to inflation.

“Thank you Chairman @RepJasonSmith and @WaysandMeansGOP for working creatively to support moms, babies, and families in the areas where they need it the most,” Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America posted on social media.

Federal workers

The final House legislation also represents a bit of a win for federal workers.

The initial legislation included changes that would have found savings by reforming federal work retirement savings. But that plan was later amended in the Rules Committee to remove $30 billion to $40 billion in those budget savings.

The losers

Unauthorized workers and migrants

One of Trump’s biggest campaign promises was to crack down on illegal immigration and prevent illegal immigrants from benefiting from taxpayer funds.

The legislation allocates new funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. That funding includes an additional $45 billion for ICE detention facilities and $14 billion for deportation operations.

The bill also provides more than $50 billion for bolstering the U.S. border and imposes a 3.5% tax on remittances for noncitizens and foreign nationals.

Adults without children who receive assistance

The legislation also makes it so that able-bodied adults without dependents will face new work requirements when it comes to federal assistance programs such as Medicaid or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, often called food stamps.

Some of those changes were made more aggressive in recent days as fiscal hawks demanded deeper cuts to spending.

The initial bill instituted Medicaid work requirements to go into effect in early 2029. The final bill moves that timeline up to the end of next year.

Green energy

The reconciliation legislation claws back some of the green energy tax credits that were implemented as part of former President Joe Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Some Republicans did not want to see the clean energy tax credits dramatically scaled back, although fiscal hawks, particularly those in the House Freedom Caucus, pushed for a full and quicker rollback of what they dub the “Green New Scam.”

While earlier versions of the legislation began phasing out certain key credits in 2029, after Trump leaves office, the final bill ends credits for all projects unless they can begin construction within 60 days of the bill’s enactment and are placed in service, or up and running, by the end of 2028.

Tanning salons

The initial legislation approved by the House Ways and Means Committee included a provision that would have repealed the excise tax on indoor tanning services.

The excise tax in question was enacted by Obamacare in 2010 and was justified as countering the health risks related to indoor tanning. It reportedly has caused some tanning salons to go out of business.

While the initial reconciliation legislation removed the excise tax, that provision was later taken out of the final bill.

Deficit hawks

While the budget hawks were able to secure some more spending cuts to offset the cost to the treasury of the tax cuts, experts still argue that the legislation, on balance, will increase the country’s deficits.

The White House argues that economic growth from the tax cuts will offset the revenue losses, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed this week that the legislation “does not add to the deficit,” but some budget experts do not think that is the case.

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“I would disagree with anyone who says that this bill does not add to the deficit,” Tax Foundation CEO and President Daniel Bunn told the Washington Examiner this week.

Many budget experts would argue that, in the long run, the bill would have had to include much steeper cuts in order to make up for the revenue hit, even despite some conservative lawmakers being able to move work requirements forward.