President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and various European leaders are focused on “security guarantees” to uphold any possible peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

Ideas on the table range from the deployment of European troops in Ukraine to collective defense guarantees along the lines of NATO’s Article 5, which commits all NATO members to recognize an attack on one member as an attack on all members, thus requiring a mutual defense response. The logic here is that unless Ukraine’s security is entrenched by force of defensive arms, any pause in the fighting will simply set the stage for another Russian assault five, 10, or 15 years down the road.

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Moscow, however, is playing games. While Trump administration officials say Russia has now accepted some form of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, the Kremlin isn’t exactly echoing that rhetoric. On Tuesday, the Russian foreign ministry again described any Western troop presence in postwar Ukraine as utterly unacceptable. It is likely that Russia will not agree to any measures that secure Ukraine’s sovereignty. After all, that security would end the very project of coercion that has defined Russia’s policy toward Ukraine since 2014.

European leaders remain more optimistic. Zelensky has said security guarantees could be finalized within 10 days. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are convening the “Coalition of the Willing” to prepare a detailed security guarantee package. The United States is expected to support any effort with air power, logistics, and intelligence efforts, but not ground forces.

Again, however, Moscow’s overarching desire to subjugate Ukraine remains omnipresent in the Kremlin’s calculations. That means the West must be prepared for what comes next: continued war.

Trump says heavier sanctions are ready to go if peace efforts fail. But merely imposing additional sanctions alone won’t be enough. Secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy would cause Moscow discomfort by draining a critical source of revenue. However, sanctions must go in tandem with building Ukraine’s long-term defensive capability. This would allow Ukraine to increase military pressure on Moscow, gradually creating conditions that could make negotiations more successful.

To strengthen Kyiv’s position, Europe and the U.S. could support the development of a more resilient defense industry capable of meeting both current battlefield needs and future security challenges. Key areas of focus include domestic drone production, where Russia has maintained an advantage, and new ballistic missile systems. Funding for such programs could come from frozen Russian assets held in the West, complemented by ongoing European financial assistance. This would provide Ukraine with a more sustainable foundation for its defense over the long term.

Meeting Ukraine’s demands today should go hand in hand with rebuilding Europe’s capacity to deter threats tomorrow. Europe must see sustained production of munitions, investment in next-generation technologies, and bolstered ability to respond quickly to crises on its borders.

UKRAINE PEACE REQUIRES TRUMP TO DEMAND ACTION FROM PUTIN

This war has diminished Russia’s influence abroad from Syria to the South Caucasus. Moscow’s reach is weaker than before the invasion. Ukraine and its partners must seize on that, not allow Russia to recover.

Unless the costs are real, Moscow will keep fighting.