President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are meeting today in Alaska for a high-stakes summit that could decide the fate of the war in Ukraine. This critical face-to-face meeting is emblematic of Trump’s unique approach to foreign policy among American presidents.
Regarding the summit, Trump said Monday, “In the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made.” When questioned about where his confidence came from, he stated, “Because that’s what I do. I make deals.”
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Trump is not unique among presidents in his confidence in his ability to solve a diplomatic crisis in face-to-face talks. Presidents have preferred personal diplomacy since World War II, when technology made it possible and the United States had a greater responsibility on the world stage.
“Presidents have found a lot of use and value in [personal diplomacy], but there are substantial risks,” Professor Tizoc Chavez of Colby College told the Washington Examiner. Globally broadcast meetings mean a president’s lack of expertise or diplomatic tact could threaten their foreign policy goals.
While he is not the first president to engage directly with foreign adversaries, Trump is unique in his diplomatic style and objectives. With his critical summit in Alaska with Putin, it is worth examining the Trump twist on the art of diplomacy.
Upending the status quo
One change that Trump has introduced to presidential foreign policy is his warm language and engagement with foreign adversaries. Trump was the first U.S. president to visit North Korea and spoke warmly of Putin at their 2018 summit in Helsinki.
Chavez explained to the Washington Examiner, “The status quo has been to reject engagement, or relationships with certain leaders. From Trump’s perspective, you could say, ‘Well, why not see what engagement could get us, right?’”
HUGO GURDON: TRUMP-PUTIN HIGH-STAKES SUMMIT
This increased warmth toward traditional geopolitical rivals of the U.S. has been matched with a greater public criticism of allies. In his February meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, Trump castigated him for being disrespectful, saying, “You’re not acting all that thankful.”
Trump has also pressured European allies to spend more on defense, even suggesting that he would not defend those who fail to meet their NATO spending obligations. But this upending of U.S. foreign policy is not necessarily appeasement.
Peace over ideology
“A lot of people say, ‘Oh, he’s pro-Russian,’ or, ‘He’s Russian sympathetic,’ or whatever,” Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told the Washington Examiner. “Actually, I don’t think so. I think he’s not ideologically attached to Russia or Ukraine winning. He wants to get the spotlight as being the guy who made the deal where everyone said there wasn’t one.”
Trump’s desire to be known as a peacemaker is the most significant driving force of his foreign policy. Several countries and organizations have nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, and reports are emerging that he called the Norwegian prime minister about the award. In his pursuit of peace, Trump has set aside certain ideological questions.
“You would never get Trump to acknowledge that Russia is part of an axis of evil, or the evil empire, whereas [President Ronald] Reagan wasn’t scared to use that language,” Coffey added. “Trump is trying to position himself as this, like, peacemaker between the two sides, whereas Reagan was clear that he was going to win the Cold War.”
This lack of ideological clarity allows Trump to operate with a level of strategic ambiguity that his predecessors lacked. Trump has set many deadlines in his second term, with many passing by unenforced or delayed. Coffey said, “The deadline comes and nothing really happens, and the deadline is coming and nothing happens until something does happen, like the strike on the Iranian nuclear facility.”
Reality show diplomacy
This unpredictability in strategy is also matched in the president’s public diplomacy. The former host of The Apprentice, Trump has used the power of the bully pulpit in both domestic and foreign policy.
This is seen in his use of Truth Social posts to conduct real-time diplomacy. Amid negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Trump posted, “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” The ceasefire held.
Trump has also hosted confrontations with foreign leaders that are broadcast live from the Oval Office. His publicly streamed criticism of Zelensky in the White House was not a one-off; he later showed South African President Cyril Ramaphosa a video alleging a genocide in his country while the press watched on.
This breaking of not just geopolitical but diplomatic norms allows Trump to keep friends and foes on their toes. However, the chaos can have its downsides. Chavez told the Washington Examiner, “If you’re seen as being basically bullied by the president, there is this kind of expectation for many in your country, if you’re that foreign leader, to stand up to the president, to stand up for your country.”
There are also limits to how much Trump’s diplomacy can realign American geopolitical priorities. “No matter how good a personal relationship is with an important leader, there needs to be a common kind of thing they’re after,” Chavez concluded.
TRUMP CONFIDENT PUTIN WILL MAKE A DEAL. WHAT DOES HE KNOW WE DON’T?
With Putin, his goals may be incompatible with the U.S.’s priorities. Luke Coffey said to the Washington Examiner regarding Putin’s ambitions for Russia, “You hear people always comparing it to Cold War Russia or Soviet Russia. It’s not Soviet Russia. It’s Imperial Russia.”
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s new art of diplomacy can overcome such hurdles.