DUELING NARRATIVES ON UKRAINE: As President Donald Trump’s entreaties to Russian President Vladimir Putin continue to fall on deaf ears, there are two countervailing theories about the trajectory of the war in Ukraine as it appears no closer to ending after more than three-and-a-half years of deadly fighting.
One school of thought is that Putin is likely correct in his assessment that, with Russia’s overwhelming numerical advantage and willingness to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers, he can fight on for at least another year and achieve his objective of subjugating Ukraine and expand his illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory to include the entire eastern Donbas region. That is the view held by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which is why both are pushing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cut his losses and make a deal, even if it means significant territorial concessions.
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The other narrative, advanced by Zelensky and some Western military experts, is that Ukraine’s ability to use its new, long-range drone capability to degrade Russia’s oil refineries and gas distribution lines has the potential to crash Russia’s economy and force Putin to make a deal.
In London, President Donald Trump — who has repeatedly balked on imposing the “very severe consequences” on Russia he threatened after his Alaska summit with Putin — now says world oil prices are the key to ending the war. “Very simply, if the price of oil comes down, Putin’s going to drop out. He’s going to have no choice, he’s going to drop out of that war,” Trump said during a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“I thought it would be easiest because of my relationship with President Putin, but he’s let me down,” Trump said, revealing that Russia continues to suffer more casualties than Ukraine in the grinding war of attrition. “He’s losing more people than he’s, you know, than he’s killing. I mean, frankly, the Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than the Ukrainian soldiers.”
“Last week, almost 8,000 soldiers were killed in this ridiculous war, 8,000 people,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News. “I want to see if I can get it done,” Trump said about his hope for an eventual peace deal. “It’s tougher than I thought. But I have done a lot of tough things.”
Asked on Air Force One en route back to the U.S. if it was time to press Putin for a ceasefire, Trump said, “Now is not the time.”
TRUMP SAYS PUTIN ‘LET ME DOWN’ AS RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE DEAL STALLS
ZELENSKY: RUSSIA “LACKS THE STRENGTH TO CONDUCT LARGE-SCALE OPERATIONS”: Even as Russian forces appeared to be closing in on the Ukrainian town of Kudiansk in the Kharkiv region, which would give Russia another key foothold in the northeast, President Zelensky insisted that Putin’s ground game is sputtering.
Russia has suffered heavy losses in the Sumy direction and lacks the strength to conduct large-scale operations on the front, Zelensky told reporters Wednesday in Kyiv. “The Sumy operation has failed. They suffered significant losses, primarily in manpower. Today, they have abandoned this direction and redeployed their forces and equipment to another area. I believe they suffered even greater losses there.”
In a video address on Thursday, Zelensky claimed that Ukraine’s counteroffensive had “liberated” more than 160 square kilometers of territory, killed more than 1,300 Russian troops, and captured 100 others. “Seven settlements in this direction have already been liberated, and nine more cleared of Russian presence. Any group of occupiers attempting to enter this area is being destroyed by our guys.”
“Russian losses just since the start of this counteroffensive – in the Pokrovsk area alone, in these past weeks – are already more than 2,500, of which over 1,300 Russians have been killed.”
LAVROV: LAND SWAPS WON’T END WAR: In public remarks over the past two days, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blamed Ukraine for rejecting Russia’s demands that the “root causes” of the war be addressed before the fighting can end, and said land swaps proposed by the U.S are a “non-starter.”
“The U.S. President’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has communicated to [Ukraine] the considerations that the Americans have conceived after the Alaska summit, considerations reflecting their understanding of the root causes and the need to remove them,” Lavrov said at a news conference Thursday. “But they were rejected.”
“Some might think that an exchange of territories or an attempt to soften President Putin by resuming trade with America has the potential to stop the war. This is not true,” Lavrov said at a roundtable discussion on Wednesday.
“Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation,” the Institute of the Study of War said, noting Lavrov’s remarks.
“Lavrov also asserted that attempts to ‘entice’ Russian President Vladimir Putin with the restoration of U.S.-Russian trade will also not end Russia’s war,” the ISW said.
TRUMP’S ABANDONMENT OF UKRAINE FORESHADOWS AMERICA’S LOOMING ESTRANGEMENT FROM NATO
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: ANOTHER SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: Facing a potential government showdown in two weeks, House Speaker Mike Johnson will try to get another short-term funding extension approved by the House today.
The House is scheduled to take up a bill that would continue funding at last year’s budget levels through Nov. 21. Democrats are threatening to force a shutdown, which would begin Oct. 1, unless Republicans compromise on healthcare funding.
JOHNSON IN BATTLE AGAINST THE CLOCK TO SEND FUNDING PATCH TO SENATE
ALSO TODAY: The Pentagon hosts its annual National POW/MIA Recognition Day ceremony, honoring those “who were held captive and returned, as well as those who remain unaccounted for from past conflicts.” War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George will preside over the ceremonies on the Pentagon’s River Terrace Parade Field at 10 a.m. Livestream at https://www.war.gov/News/Live-Events/
GOOD LUCK GETTING BAGRAM BACK: President Trump dropped what he called “a little breaking news” when he revealed he’s hoping to regain control of Afghanistan’s sprawling Bagram air base, built by the U.S. during 20 years of war against the Taliban.
“We’re going to keep Bagram, the big air base, one of the biggest air bases in the world. We gave it to them for nothing. We’re trying to get it back,” he said at his London news conference, indicating he believed the Taliban might be willing to allow the U.S. back in “because they need things from us.”
“We want that base back,” Trump said. “One of the reasons we want the base is, as you know, it’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”
In a bit of revisionist history, Trump has repeatedly claimed that had he been in office, he never would have abandoned the base. However, when he was in office, he ordered the withdrawal of all U.S. troops with no provision to leave any behind to hold the base, which would have been a wildly impractical idea, leaving the base surrounded by hostile forces.
Bill Roggio, an Afghanistan expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted three big obstacles to Trump’s desire to get the base back.
“The Taliban cannot be trusted, nor will the Taliban hand over Bagram to the U.S.,” he said.
“The Taliban fought for 20 years to eject the United States, and it will not permit the U.S. to return,” Roggio said in an email. “Even if the Taliban considered this, China most certainly would do everything it can to entice the Taliban to keep the U.S. out of Afghanistan and has far more leverage and enticements to make this happen.”
“President Trump should take care to not repeat the mistakes of both his first administration and the Biden administration in believing that the Taliban is a partner that can be trusted. The Trump administration’s mistake in negotiating with the Taliban and signing the Doha Agreement in Trump’s first term set the stage for the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal,” Roggio said. “The Trump administration should be very careful not to grant the Taliban concessions only to be prevented access to Bagram in the end.”
US TRYING TO GET BAGRAM AIR BASE IN AFGHANISTAN BACK, TRUMP SAYS
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump says Putin ‘let me down’ as Russia-Ukraine peace deal stalls
Washington Examiner: US trying to get Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan back, Trump says
Washington Examiner: Families of Oct. 7 victims sue Hamas and other terrorist groups
Washington Examiner: Trump allows former UK leader Tony Blair to organize Gaza peace plan, post-war authority
Washington Examiner: Saudi Arabia signs defense agreement with Pakistan following Israel’s Qatar strike
Washington Examiner: NORTHCOM tests new counter-drone technology for defense of US homeland
Washington Examiner: US and UK take part in first-ever coordinated satellite maneuver
Washington Examiner: Free speech debate dominates Trump’s ‘wonderful’ UK visit with Starmer
Washington Examiner: Democrats delay House hearing by forcing vote to subpoena Noem
Washington Examiner: Eleven Democratic officials arrested in NYC after demanding access to ICE holding cells
Washington Examiner: Trump to hold call with Xi Jinping to discuss TikTok deal
Washington Examiner: How the CCP’s propaganda machine uses Western elites to bolster its legitimacy
Washington Examiner: Senate confirms first batch of Trump nominees using ‘nuclear’ option
Washington Examiner: Trump’s helicopter makes emergency landing in England due to ‘hydraulic issue’
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Sorry, Europe is still very weak on Russia
AP: British spy chief says he sees no evidence Putin wants to negotiate peace in Ukraine
AP: Ukraine aims to expand its weapons industry to deter Russia and help allies
Bloomberg: Pentagon Completes Golden Dome Blueprint, But Silent on Costs
New York Times: The Hottest New Defense Against Drones? Lasers
Defense News: Denmark to Field Long-Range Strike Weapons in Bid to Deter Attacks
AP: 4 Service Members Were Aboard US Army Helicopter That Crashed in Washington State
Defense One: AFSOC Exercise Brings Concept Created for Great-Power Conflict to the Caribbean
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Strategy & Policy: A New Bomber Era Arrives
Breaking Defense: Northrop Grumman’s AI Testbed Will Fly for the First Time This Fall, Company Says
The War Zone: Large Stealth Flying Wing Appears at Chinese Test Base
National Security Journal: China’s Military Has Just One Goal: Beat America In A War
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Targets PT, Nutrition in ‘Culture of Fitness’ Effort
Breaking Defense: Beyond ‘Potpourri’ of Sensors: Saltzman Pushes Holistic Approach to Space Domain Awareness
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Adds Unit Tying Acquisition to Test and Training
DefenseScoop: Kirsten Davies, Nominee for Pentagon CIO, Advocates for ‘Great Change’ at the Department
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Needs a Digital Command as Part of New Approach to Key Technologies
The War Zone: Rare ‘Naked’ E-4B ‘Doomsday Plane’ Spotted Flying in Texas
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 19
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence and National Security Alliance the 2025 Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Lt. Gen. Jerry Carter, deputy commandant for information at the Marine Corps; Steven Parode, deputy director of naval intelligence at the Navy; and Maj. Gen. Brian Sidari, deputy chief of space operations for intelligence at the Space Force, Pamela Byron, deputy assistant director, FBI Counterterrorism Division; and Kelton Jago, deputy director, National Counterterrorism Center; Kenneth McNeill, CIO of the National Guard Bureau; Taushiana Bright, section chief of the FBI Cyber Division; and Jermaine Roebuck, associate director for threat hunting at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency https://intelsummit.org/
9:30 a.m. 251 Fulton St., New York, New York — Atlantic Festival Ideas Session with Tekedra Mawakana, CEO of Waymo; and Arvind Krishna, chair and CEO of IBM, Gayle King, co-host of CBS Mornings and editor at large for Oprah Daily; and Julianne Moore, actress and author; Monica Lewinsky, activist and podcast host of “Reclaiming With Monica Lewinsky” https://www.theatlantic.com/theatlanticfestival/
10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: “Nuclear Priorities for Trump 2.0,” with Matthew Kroenig, senior director, Atlantic Council Center for Strategy and Security https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/nuclear-priorities-for-trump-2-0
3 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Venezuela: Can U.S. Pressure Break Maduro’s Grip?” with Eric Farnsworth, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Carrie Filipeti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition; and David Smolansky, deputy director of the Washington office of Con Venezuela https://www.hudson.org/events/venezuela-can-us-pressure-break-maduros-grip
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 26
12 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies Aerospace Security Project in-person and virtual book discussion: Rocket Dreams: Musk, Bezos, and the Inside Story of the New, Trillion-Dollar Space Race, with author Christian Davenport; Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project; Scott Pace, director, Space Policy Institute at George Washington University and former deputy assistant to the president and executive secretary, National Space Council; and Chirag Parikh, president, Indutara Space LLC and former deputy assistant to the president and executive secretary, National Space Council https://www.csis.org/events/rocket-dreams-inside-new-space-race
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 30
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security “Defense Writers Group breakfast discussion,” with Lt. Gen. Christopher Mohan, deputy commanding general, Army Materiel Command and senior commander, Redstone Arsenal RSVP: [email protected].