When the third GOP presidential debate takes place on Nov 8., the first primary contest will be two months away. That means only serious candidates should be on the stage, and that the Republican National Committee’s current polling threshold is still too low.
The polling threshold for the third GOP debate in Miami requires candidates to hit a measly 4% in just two national polls or one national poll and two early state polls. Of the seven candidates on the stage Wednesday night, only North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is at serious risk of missing the third debate under that criteria.
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Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would need just one national poll to support his single-digit, fourth-place numbers (according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages) in New Hampshire that nonetheless would allow him to qualify. The same is true for South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott with his single-digit, fifth-place numbers in Iowa. (Scott is polling better in South Carolina, which would make a better case for him if he could register nationally). Former Vice President Mike Pence is averaging 4.2% in national polls, which means he should be able to sneak in as well.
The debates are clearly starting to pass some candidates by, though, and the standards should be raised. Perhaps double-digits would be too much to expect (the only non-Trump candidate hitting that nationally is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis), but even a paltry 6%-7% threshold would separate the serious candidates from the filler. Nationally, Scott and Christie have each maxed out at 5% in one poll over the last two weeks. Pence has two 6% polls nationally and one 6% poll in Iowa, with the rest of his numbers befitting his placement Wednesday night at the far edge of the debate stage.
DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley join former President Donald Trump in the top three nationally and in all three of the first primary states. Vivek Ramaswamy is a close fourth to Haley nationally and in Iowa, and has pulled high single-digit numbers in polls that separate him from the other fading candidates. Those are the campaigns with a semblance of life right now.
Even before the debate, Christie, Pence, and Scott weren’t hurting for name recognition. If they can’t pull the same numbers as political newcomer Ramaswamy after the added benefit of two nationally televised debates, why should they be on the stage to begin with? Even Burgum could conceivably make the third debate under these standards.
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A 4% threshold is simply too low for a debate that is just two months before the first votes. We don’t need to see Pence miss applause lines at the end of the stage if his campaign can’t consistently pull 6%-7% one month from now, and the same is true for the other candidates whose campaigns are still sitting on the runway.
It’s time to limit the debates to the serious campaigns that have a chance of having an impact on the race.