Several centrist House Republicans could defect to sink President Donald Trump‘s “big, beautiful bill.” The bill can only survive three GOP defectors if all members are present and voting, and numerous Republicans have expressed hesitation to support it.
With Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Warren Davidson (R-OH) signaling immovable “no” votes — they voted “no” for the version approved by the House in May — two more holdouts would sink the megabill.
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The bill narrowly passed in May after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) included some sweeteners to win over reluctant Republicans. After a marathon session, the Senate passed the significantly revised bill on Tuesday in a 51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie.
House Republicans are less enthused with the new version of the bill despite Trump’s threats and his July 4 deadline to pass it. Centrists expressed dismay with welfare cuts, while fiscal hawks were uneasy with its potential to raise the deficit, which was the main problem that triggered Elon Musk’s fallout with Trump.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) appeared to be the firmest “no” outside of Massie and Davidson, responding in the negative twice when reporters asked if he would vote for the bill as he did in May.
“What we ought to do is take exactly the House bill that we sent over and go home and say ‘when you’re serious, come back,’” Norman said, according to the New York Times.
Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN) heavily implied that he would not vote in favor of the bill unless significant changes were made, which would require it to be sent back to the Senate.
“The changes the Senate made to the House passed Beautiful Bill, including unacceptable increases to the national debt and the deficit, are going to make passage in the House difficult,” he said, expressing his willingness to work past the July 4 deadline to make it acceptable. “We cannot in good faith pass a bill through our chamber that hinges on cut corners and earmarks. The American people won’t stand for it.”
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) took issue with the bill’s treatment of green energy subsidies, saying the Senate’s changes in favor of them are “a deal-killer of an already bad deal.”
Roy was careful to portray his opposition as out of support for Trump.
“The President’s team has worked hard with us. … I love the president and what he’s doing. I want to deliver. But here we sit, and I didn’t come to Washington to increase deficits. I didn’t come to Washington to continue the Great New Scam,” Roy said, asking why they couldn’t just repeal the green subsidies. “The president is kicking ass. Congress is up here dithering.”
Roy clarified that rejecting the Senate’s version of the bill would not “kill” it. He suggested the House write a new version and send it back to the upper chamber.
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) also opposed the bill in support of Trump, favorably quoting Stutzman’s X post explaining his opposition to the current version of the bill.
The House Freedom Caucus has adopted this position, even releasing an ad portraying opposition to the Senate’s version of Trump’s bill as support for the president.
“The House Freedom Caucus says no” to the reinstituted subsidies, the ad said. “The message: Stand firm. Stand with President Trump and end the Green New Scam now.”
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris (R-MD) said the Senate’s version of the bill “is not ready for prime time.”
“We support the president’s agenda. The president’s agenda was not to raise the deficit by three-quarters of a trillion dollars over the next 10 years,” he told Fox News in an interview. “The bottom line is the House will have its say, and this will not sail through the House. We’re going to have to negotiate with the Senate one more time.”
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Senate’s version would add $3.4 trillion to the national deficit, compared to the $2.4 trillion the House version would add.
On the other end of the conservative spectrum, centrist Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) also portrayed his opposition to the bill as in line with Trump’s position.
“I’ve been clear from the start that I will not support a final reconciliation bill that makes harmful cuts to Medicaid, puts critical funding at risk, or threatens the stability of healthcare providers across CA-22,” he said in a statement on X released before the Senate’s version of the bill passed.
“President Trump was clear when he said to root out waste, fraud, and abuse without cutting Medicaid, and I wholeheartedly agree. I urge my Senate colleagues to stick to the Medicaid provisions in H.R. 1 — otherwise, I will vote no,” Valadao added.
On Tuesday, Johnson expressed dissatisfaction with the Senate’s version of the bill, saying he was “not happy” but “we understand this is the process.” Nevertheless, the House speaker said he would push to get all Republicans to vote “yes.”
Meanwhile, Trump is working overtime to push reluctant House Republicans to support the bill. He cleared his Wednesday schedule in order to meet with holdouts.
“Our Country will make a fortune this year, more than any of our competitors, but only if the Big, Beautiful Bill is PASSED!” Trump said Wednesday morning on Truth Social. “As they say, Trump’s been right about everything, and this is the easiest of them all to predict. Republicans, don’t let the Radical Left Democrats push you around. We’ve got all the cards, and we are going to use them.”
TRUMP CLEARS SCHEDULE TO CONVINCE HOUSE GOP HOLDOUTS TO PASS ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’
Despite widespread doubts in the House, Trump suggested on Tuesday that the new version of the bill would “do very well in the House.”
“We thought the Senate was going to be tougher than the House. We got there, and we got pretty much what we wanted,” he said when asked if he thought it would be a struggle to wrestle House Republicans to vote in favor.