As the nation hurtles toward a presidential election that will showcase a deep cultural divide between those who attained a college degree and those who did not, there are emerging signs that high schoolers are souring on the value of an undergraduate degree.

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which tracks higher education enrollment, released the latest numbers last week for the fall 2024 semester. What the data show is a slow but massive shift in the public’s approach to postsecondary education that may destroy the reputational and institutional power of traditional four-year college attendance.

It is no secret that enrollment in higher education has been in decline. The largest annual decrease in recent years came in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the college decisions of a large swath of high school seniors, leading to a nearly 10% drop in enrollment. In the years since then, enrollment has bounced back somewhat but is still below where it was in 2019. Given the new data for fall 2024, it is fair to wonder if it will ever reach that point again.

According to the new data, freshman enrollment at four-year colleges and universities declined by 5% this year. The numbers are preliminary and will not be finalized until January, but the decline is real and tangible and can be attributed to a variety of factors, some of which can be easily addressed while others would be much more difficult to reverse.

Regardless of the external factors that may have contributed to or accelerated the decline, the numbers make one thing clear: the public thinks the value of a college education has fallen. Its promised return on investment has increasingly failed to materialize, creating conditions to burst the higher education bubble that was built by student debt and government meddling.

FAFSA fails

Cost is among the most important factors for high school seniors who choose to attend college. For many institutions, the price of a four-year degree is astronomical. Most students need financial aid in the form of scholarships or grants, along with some loans, to afford a college education.

The freshman class of fall 2024 had the dubious distinction of being the first to apply for college the year that the Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid overhauled the Free Application for Federal Student Aid. 

The launch of the simplified application was delayed by three months and plagued by technical difficulties, which meant students who had filled out the application did not receive their financial aid award letters on time. The Biden-Harris administration is entirely to blame for this debacle, as it prioritized illegal and unconstitutional student debt forgiveness over the congressionally mandated FAFSA update. There is little doubt that this delay made it harder for prospective students to decide which college to attend or whether to attend at all. 

The grim picture has hardly improved this year. The FAFSA usually launches on Oct. 1, but the Department of Education has already announced that it will be two months late, ensuring a repeat of the delays that plagued the application process last year. With another application cycle bringing more bungling incompetence, it’s no surprise that more students and their parents want nothing to do with it.

Is a college degree worth the loans?

Even if a student successfully navigated the 2024 FAFSA hellscape, he or she still had to make a decision about whether or not to take on thousands of dollars in loans to get a four-year degree. As the student loan crisis has spiraled out of control, more and more students are coming to the conclusion that saddling themselves with big debts before starting adult careers is not an obviously wise investment.

Cumulative federal student loan debt exceeds $1.6 trillion. That money is owed by some 40 million people, more than one in 10 people in the United States. The average borrower owes roughly $39,000 on their federal student loan balance, a sum that has become a serious impediment to the ability of an entire generation to accumulate wealth and ensure a successful financial future. The federal student loan program has compounded the problem by creating an incentive for colleges to raise tuition rates. More money chasing static supply raises prices.

It was inevitable that more high school graduates and their parents would look at the cost of going to college and judge that it was just not worth it. This is born out in the latest enrollment numbers. 

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s report found that while undergraduate freshman enrollment declined, 7% more young people are choosing short-term credential programs instead. Moreover, the total number of students enrolled in undergraduate programs did increase, and this was driven primarily by high school students joining dual enrollment programs and non-freshmen enrolling in a four-year program. 

In other words, students are desperately looking for ways to further their education and build successful careers without sinking up to their ears in debt before landing their first full-time salaried job.

For institutions of higher education, this souring attitude toward a college education could not come at a worse time. In fall 2026, higher education will likely reach its peak enrollment before a precipitous decline sets in and lasts for several decades. This is due to the simple fact that beginning in 2008, people had fewer and fewer children. The 2026 class is the last before we arrive at the demographic cliff. After that, enrollment is going to drop year over year for the foreseeable future.

With higher education enrollment already sliding, many small colleges will likely collapse and topple over the demographic cliff. Larger schools will be forced to raise tuition rates yet further or shrink the size of their student body to account for the fact that there are simply fewer undergraduates willing to attend their institutions.

A fitting fate

Colleges and universities have only themselves to blame. As they drew in millions of students, institutions of higher education created the circumstances for their own downfall. The economic bubble inflated by high tuition rates, which created an enormous debtor class, was not a viable long-term program, nor was its embrace of rank left-wing partisanship.

Radical progressive politics has been woven into the warp and weft of the college experience, leading more students and families to question, indeed, to look at the relationship between the cost and value of the education being provided. Coincidentally or not, the nation’s small cohort of conservative colleges has seen a sustained uptick in enrollment and interest, even as legacy institutions with enormous brands and left-wing reputations have suffered.

Nothing has exemplified this divide more than the fact that next week, a majority of college graduates will cast their votes for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, while a majority of voters without a college degree will vote for former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. If Trump wins reelection, the places that will show the most raucous and unpleasant anger over his triumph will undoubtedly be college campuses, much in the same way as in 2016.

As an institutional force, higher education has never attempted to grapple with the fact that it is profoundly and dangerously out of touch with the average person. Yet, it has pushed more and more people to attend college by declaring a four-year degree to be the only path toward a successful career, and in doing so, it has managed to rake in billions of dollars from students and taxpayers. It has raised its prices while alienating its possible customers.

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The sustained enrollment decline of recent years has created a five-alarm fire for the higher education establishment because it threatens its financial stream and its status in the national psyche, which has largely accepted as gospel the notion that a college degree is a surefire ticket to success and should be pursued by all. With fewer students going to college, higher education’s status as a defining cultural and economic force is in danger. 

The shriveling and shrinking of the higher education bubble will take several more years. However, if fewer students go to college, more high school graduates will be free of the shackles of student loan debt and the suffocating political agenda that has infected the campus quad. The nation will be better off for it.

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