In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America. Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture. You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.

I’m not in the prediction business. But I do enjoy history. And history tells me overconfident Republicans may be in for an uncomfortable awakening soon. 

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Democrats, after all, are off their rockers these days, and yet the GOP only holds a historically narrow four-seat advantage in the House. There’s a not-insignificant likelihood Democrats could take the House in the 2026 midterms. It’s not out of the question that he could win the presidency in 2028, as well. It will only take one term to turn back most of President Donald Trump’s executive agenda.  

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Republicans scoff at the prospects of an oily politician like Gavin Newsom winning the presidency. But it’s not exactly far-fetched. The California governor is more shrewd and effective than Kamala Harris, who lost the race by a relatively narrow margin considering her situation and abilities.  

Newsom has already situated himself as the leader of the opposition. His appeal to Democrats is predicated on the notion that the national party isn’t fighting and is being emasculated by the opposition, which is pretty much the same grievance Trump ran on in 2015. Newsom “fights” by employing aggressive, often juvenile, Trumpian tactics. Sure, mimicking the president online is transparently cringy to many of us. But this brand also works with a lot of voters. Let’s not forget that a large chunk of the Republican Party also mimics Trump. Most of them, not very well. 

Newsom isn’t a good governor, you say. Does it matter? Was former President Joe Biden a good senator? He could barely cobble together coherent sentences when he ran in 2020. What were former President Barack Obama’s accomplishments? Trump had no record, either. So perhaps not doing anything but tweeting a lot is the best model for campaign success. We’re in age of the influencer. If the most vital aspect of a candidacy were accomplishments, few of these people would be in power. 

Trump first began “exploring” a 2016 presidential run in 2013, letting the press know he was dropping a million dollars to investigate his odds. I don’t for a second believe that Trump cared what some pinhead statistician told him about his presidential chances. Legend has it that Trump decided to run for the White House back in 2011, after Barack Obama mocked him for his reversal on “birtherism” at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. That was five years out. 

At the time, the Republican Party’s favorability had fallen to historic lows in Gallup polling. Republicans agonized over “autopsies” while Democrats were concern-trolling over the prospects of a nation without two functioning major political parties. 

At that time, Democrats believed Obama, with the help of demographic fate, had created a permanent political realignment in the country. And they comported themselves accordingly, with hubris and abuses of executive and bureaucratic power. A few years earlier, George W. Bush’s inner circle had convinced themselves of the same. Without fail, political parties see their election as special and enduring. It never works out that way. Voters aren’t automatons. Coalitions break up. History happens. 

And in many ways, the Trump coalition is even more rickety than most, as it relies on the will and personality of a single man. 

Trump is a generational political whirlwind, whose celebrity uniquely appeals to many non-traditional Republican voters. Latinos almost certainly are one group more comfortable supporting him than they would an average Republican. And the personal loyalty Trump engenders from around 30% of Republicans is also quite rare. To this group, anything the man says or does is championed as truth. “Let him cook” is the kind of inane ode we hear to this alleged genius, irrespective of the topic. 

Very few politicians can lean on such adulation, even if voters are predisposed to agreeing with them. This Trumpian contingent isn’t the majority, but it’s enough to sink any Republican who challenges Trump.

Can this loyalty be transposed onto a successor? It’s unlikely. Will the mantle holder be Vice-President JD Vance, the favorite of anti-market ideologues on the “new right” who backfill Trump’s messy, instinctive politics with antiquated mercantilist and isolationist ideas? Most voters don’t really understand how antagonistic the “new right” is towards economic dynamism. What happens if Trump‘s watered-down protectionist policies catch up with the economy? Even if they don’t, would Vance generate a similar devotion from voters? Right now, even in good times, he is as unpopular as Kamala Harris. 

Or will the successor be Marco Rubio, who’s really found his calling as an effective Secretary of State? As a politician, “Little Marco” is one of the great trend chasers in recent American political history, from Tea Party libertarian to establishment dealmaker to economic statist. Or will it be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was not only overwhelmingly rejected by Republican primary voters in 2024 but now tainted because he came at the king too early and missed? 

Whoever ends up the nominee will have to face the reality of the GOP losing ground among the fastest growing and most vital demographic, the suburban voter. A populist Republican candidate will have to recreate Trump’s success among the fastest shrinking demo in the country, the “working class” white voter, in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

None of this is to say that Trump-obsessed Democrats are in a great spot, either. Perhaps they’ll be able to detach a national campaign from the weird extremist planks of the activist class. Perhaps they will turn to someone like Josh Shapiro. The popular governor of Pennsylvania’s biggest problem, of course, is that he is both Jewish and relatively moderate in an era in which antisemitism and radicalism have been normalized among many progressives. It is almost surely Shapiro’s support of Israel — though the governor cowardly walked it back — that derailed his veep chances in 2024. Then again, perhaps the Gaza war wraps up by 2027, and progressives will have moved onto a new cause de jour. 

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One of the biggest misconceptions about Trump’s success is that his appeal centers on “far-right” positions, when the president can barely even be considered a political conservative. Many voters believe the nation, and major parties, lost the plot. Trump’s positions would have been familiar to most liberals 20 years ago.

The question is whether or not Democrats come back to the middle, and whether the post-Trump Republican Party will be able to sell the president’s populist message. It would only take one downturn to turn American elections upside down again. Because nothing is a sure thing in politics. Which is always worth remembering.