


A favorite pastime of political pundits is to turn every off-cycle election into a predictor of the next major election, and Tuesday’s Georgia Supreme Court election is offering yet another opportunity.
This non-partisan race, which featured a conservative incumbent against a liberal challenger, received renewed attention in the waning days of the race due to its possible implications on the legality of abortion.
But on Election Day, incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson easily won reelection handily over his challenger John Barrow, despite the latter’s attempt to turn the non-partisan election into a referendum on abortion. The most surprising aspect of the election was how well Pinson did in traditionally Democratic areas of the state.
Take Fulton and DeKalb counties, two counties that encompass the Atlanta metro area. In 2020, Joe Biden won these counties over Donald Trump by more than 50 points each. But on Tuesday, Barrow carried them by less than 30 points. Meanwhile, in rural counties, the story was the opposite. In 2020, Trump carried Lee County by more than 40 points. But last night, Pinson carried the county by 20 points.
It’s a pattern that has repeated itself everywhere in the state. Pinson over-performed Trump in heavily Democratic areas, while Barrow over-performed Biden in heavily Republican areas. It all added up to a 10 point victory for Pinson.
For Republicans, these results are thrilling. If Pinson can make the race in metropolitan Atlanta unusually competitive, surely the party can win over a number of voters in this major population center. This is a foolish extrapolation.
There is nothing that can be learned from this Supreme Court race about the electorate that will vote in the presidential election this November. Georgia is a swing state that backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, and is key to either candidate’s chances of winning the White House in November.
But all this Georgia Supreme Court election told us about the Georgia electorate is that incumbent Supreme Court justices win reelection and the non-partisan and low turnout nature of the race destroyed any regional partisan divides that would have otherwise existed.
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It did not tell us anything about whether or not abortion will be a salient political issue for Biden and Democrats in House races. Nor did it tell us that Trump is losing support among the rural voters that have made up the core of his support for the past eight years.
If Trump and the GOP want to put Georgia back into the Republican column, they must resist the urge to see Tuesday’s results as a sign of what will come in November. The state is still very competitive, and Pinson’s win is entirely irrelevant to the presidential race.