For decades, political analysts have speculated about election outcomes for the White House and Congress by relying on polling and job approval ratings to help inform their predictions. Now, that playbook is being thrown out altogether.
The last five election cycles exposed weaknesses in this traditional strategy, beginning in 2016, when polls projected a win for then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton due to her strong lead in the popular vote, only for her to lose the electoral vote to former President Donald Trump. A similar outcome occurred during the 2022 midterm elections, in which Republicans were predicted to secure huge gains, only for Democrats to hold on to the Senate and keep their losses in the House to the single digits.
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Pollsters are now seeking new ways to gauge voter behavior in a political landscape marked by “deep turmoil when all the rules in American politics are being rewritten,” according to political strategist Doug Sosnik.
“Yet, for all the uncertainty, the road map to the 2024 election outcome could not be clearer,” he wrote in a recent memo obtained by Politico.
Sosnik, who served as a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton during his second term, argues that the conventional methods of predicting elections have all been debunked over the last decade. To paint a more accurate reflection of the U.S. electorate, Sosnik noted analysts must zero in on likely voters in these eight battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
One of the top factors keeping these states competitive is the average education level among its electorate. Exit polls increasingly show that voters with higher education levels typically support Democrats, while less educated voters more often skew toward Republicans.
However, the average educational attainment in these eight battleground states falls right down the middle, meaning the electorate could swing in either direction.
Sosnik has identified at least four groups of voters who will be key to the 2024 cycle and may determine the outcome:
Double doubters
The first bloc of voters who are likely to have an outsize role in the 2024 election is those who have a negative view of both Trump and President Joe Biden — possibly making them the most important demographic, according to Sosnik.
These so-called “double doubters” take up a large portion of the national electorate, with one ABC News/Ipsos poll showing a majority of the country viewed both unfavorably. Only 31% view either candidate in a favorable light.
This group could pave the way for a major shake-up in the 2024 race, as it opens the door for a third-party candidate to make inroads with swing voters. Doing so could give Trump a major advantage, as an additional candidate would help split any anti-Trump sentiment that could hand him a win.
Independents
Historical trends show independents with a growing influence over political outcomes as the winning party in the last four election cycles carrying the key group.
There’s also a rising number of voters who don’t identify with either party, making up more than 30% of voters in the 2022 midterm elections, according to exit polls — the highest percentage since 1980.
Abortion rights voters
Abortion rights emerged as a key debate during the midterm elections after the Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade, with Democrats often crediting the subject for their better-than-expected performance.
Even a year later, abortion plays a major role in voter turnout, with Democrats hoping to seize on that messaging again to lead them to victory in 2024. Midterm exit polls showed a majority of voters (62%) believe abortion should be legal, a 7-point increase from 2020.
More than two-thirds of voters (69%) say abortion should be legal in the first three months of pregnancy, according to a recent Gallup survey conducted this month — a record high for the polling group. That sentiment is especially high among independent voters (74%), a crucial voting bloc in the 2024 elections.
Republicans
With the former president emerging as an early front-runner for the party nomination and a growing anti-Trump sentiment among GOP voters, Republicans are likely to have a significant influence over the election outcome.
Democrats made sizable gains with Republicans during the 2022 midterm elections, securing double-digit percentages with the voting bloc in the governors’ races in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The party also made surprising gains with the GOP in Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.
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Republicans could see themselves becoming an especially coveted voting group if Trump wins the GOP nomination, as at least 21% of the party say they would not vote for the former president under any circumstances, according to a recent CNN poll. Another 27% say he should end his candidacy amid two federal indictments.
It’s not clear whether Republicans would be willing to support the Democratic candidate, especially if Biden wins the nomination, but it could offer Democrats a chance to siphon off key support to maintain control of the White House.