The final nail in former Vice President Kamala Harris’s political coffin was hammered in on Thursday by two analysts who have determined that even if she got every single eligible voter to the polls last November, she still would have been skunked by President Donald Trump.
The Pew Research Center finally released its analysis of the 2024 election, the last of several anticipated by political pundits, and it revealed that Trump expanded his coalition and helped create a newly diverse GOP base of voters.
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Erasing all the liberal media hype that the race was Harris’s to lose, Pew said that even among those who did not vote, they would have favored Trump.
“When asked how they would have voted, people eligible to vote who did not do so were fairly evenly split in their preferences: 44% say they would have supported Trump, while 40% say they would have backed Harris,” said Pew.
The Census Bureau recently said that 154 million voted, and 174 million were eligible to vote.
Plenty to dig into in the latest @pewresearch analysis of the 2024 election, but notable re: an ongoing debate: had all non-voters voted, Trump still wins the PV, and by a slightly wider margin (a change from 2020, when non-voters would have increased Biden's margin). pic.twitter.com/ye299T3iln
— Michael Baharaeen (@mbaharaeen) June 26, 2025
The new analysis raised the possibility that former President Joe Biden, who bowed to party elders and quit his reelection in favor of Harris, might have pulled out a victory.
“If all Americans eligible to vote in 2024 had cast ballots, the overall margin in the popular vote likely would not have been much different,” said Pew, adding, “In contrast, if all eligible Americans had voted in 2020, Biden’s margin of victory would likely have increased.”
Looking at the highly anticipated Pew data, national political analyst Kyle Kondik said, “This provides more backing for the idea that Harris and Democrats had both a turnout and a persuasion problem.”
Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics political newsletter.
His analysis reinforced Pew’s view that Trump expanded his base and made it more diverse with minorities, especially Hispanics and African Americans.
What’s more, he noted that Trump did not lose many white voters, and did well with younger voters, making his 2024 win a politically satisfying victory.
NEW: After each U.S. election, we match respondents from our nationally representative American Trends panel to official state voting records to verify who actually turned out to vote (or didn’t) to produce a comprehensive analysis of precisely who voted and how they voted. A few…
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) June 26, 2025
“The Democratic presidential coalition is still much more racially diverse than the Republican coalition, but the difference between the two has lessened over the course of Trump’s three elections,” said Kondik. “The Pew report adds further backing to the now well-established finding that the shifts from 2020 to 2024 were driven by voters of color, particularly Latinos and Asian Americans.”
Below are some of his highlights, but one stands out for special attention: Trump’s success among naturalized migrants. Despite a very hard-edged promise to boot unauthorized migrants from the country, the new Americans shifted heavily to the president.
“One striking finding came among the roughly 10% of the electorate made up of naturalized citizens: They voted only narrowly for Kamala Harris after backing Joe Biden by about 20 points,” Kondik said, citing the Pew data.
Other of Kondik’s takeaways:
— Trump’s support among Latinos remained strong. “Pew found that 89% of Trump’s 2020 voters turned out in 2024 versus 85% of Joe Biden’s. But among Latinos, the pro-Trump turnout dynamic was sharper: 86% of Trump’s 2020 Hispanic voters voted in 2024, versus just 77% of Biden’s.”
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— “The Latino shift varies [among Pew and other 2024 reviews], but it was clearly large no matter the source — more than double the overall 2020 to 2024 shift to Trump nationally. Pew showed the Democratic margin among Latinos contracting from 61%-36% to 51%-48%.”
— New voters and those who did not vote in 2020 favored Trump. “Pew found that this group, comprising both people eligible to vote in 2020 but who did not vote along with those who were too young to vote in 2020, backed Trump by 7 points.”