Neither the Republican nor Democratic ballots for the 2026 Texas Senate race are set, with multiple candidates on both sides weighing bids that could set up competitive primaries.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is already facing one tough primary challenger this cycle in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. But Reps. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) and Wesley Hunt (R-TX) are also stoking speculation that they may throw their hats into the ring.
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On the Democratic side, former Rep. Colin Allred is the sole candidate, for now. He launched his bid on July 1, eight months after losing to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the 2024 election.
But Allred may not be alone on the ballot. Several other well-known Texas Democrats, including former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), and Texas state Rep. James Talarico, are also considering launching campaigns.
Competitive primaries can be fatal to a challenging party. Republicans learned that lesson the hard way in the 2022 elections, when several of their conservative candidates defeated centrist challengers. In several cases, the more right-leaning candidate lost to a Democrat in the general election.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate seat as “likely Republican” with Cornyn as the incumbent. Republican circles are growing increasingly worried, however, that a primary between Cornyn and Paxton, which is already turning ugly, could crack open the door for a Democratic win.
Texas Democrats are eyeing Paxton as a more favorable matchup for them if the attorney general can defeat Cornyn. Operatives and strategists have said Paxton’s controversial past, including his recent divorce from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, and his connection to the MAGA base, could put a Democratic candidate in a better position to win.
A National Republican Senatorial Committee official told the Washington Examiner that the Texas race is “only competitive if Ken Paxton is the nominee.”
“There is a very real possibility that Ken Paxton could still win in a general election,” the official said. “The problem is that it makes it more expensive, and it could risk resources that should be diverted to other states, like Michigan, Georgia, Maine, or North Carolina.”
That reality could come true if polls are an indication of the upcoming primary. A poll in May showed Paxton leading Cornyn 43%-34%. A June survey conducted by a Paxton-allied super PAC found the attorney general leading the senator 57%-38% in a head-to-head matchup.
Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, would be more difficult to beat. But some Democrats also believe the incumbent, while attracting more centrist voters, may not drive a high turnout.
“The Ken Paxton primary run is a threat to the majority, because at the end of the day, losing Texas is not an option,” the NRSC official said. “And the reality is that if we have to save Texas, that is a very expensive endeavor that could limit the money that we have in other places that we feel right now have a good opportunity.”
Democrats not set on a challenger to flip red seat
Though Allred has launched a bid to be the Democratic nominee, other candidates are still waiting to get into the race — and it appears the party is waiting to see what challengers will launch campaigns.
At the end of June, O’Rourke held a rally in Texas and invited both Castro and Talarico to come onstage. He is still on the fence about whether to run for office again after unsuccessfully challenging Cruz in 2018, running for president in 2020, and challenging Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) in 2022.
“I take a lot of hope in James Talarico, Joaquin Castro, Colin Allred, who couldn’t be here tonight,” O’Rourke told attendees. “And I want everyone else to have that same hope.”
The former congressman said it was too early to stake out who would be on the ballot but noted that Democrats have many options.
“Imagine these guys representing us at a statewide level in the Senate, as governor, as attorney general, wherever people end up,” he said. “So that’s about as far as I’ve gotten.”
Allred has not received an endorsement from the state party, state leaders, or congressional lawmakers — though leadership, state parties, and committees often do not endorse until after a primary election.
The NRSC official told the Washington Examiner that Allred “does not appear to be the guy.”
“It seems like they are still very much shopping around,” the official said. “Beto, Joaquin, and others have all said that they’re still thinking about it.”
Talarico said in an interview with NewsNation on Tuesday that he is hoping to make a decision soon on whether he will run for Cornyn’s seat, likely to come after an August legislative session Abbott called to try to redraw the congressional district lines.
“Once that’s over, I’ll be able to make a decision about how I can best serve, and I am looking at the U.S. Senate seat, and so I’m hoping to focus on that after I get through my current job,” he said.
Talarico turned heads as a possible candidate after he appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast earlier in July. He received praise from the host, who told him, “You need to run for president.” He has gained a steady following on social media, accumulating nearly 1 million followers on TikTok — a strategy many Democrats are using to try to meet voters where they are after suffering losses in the 2024 elections.
The state senator could be a popular contender among younger and grassroots voters, who want to see a shake-up of the status quo and a phase-out of older members who they believe need to pass the torch.
House Republicans could widen GOP primary field
Jackson and Hunt are eyeing the Republican nomination, complicating things for Cornyn as he seeks to use his incumbent status to rally a strong voting base.
Thanks to Cornyn’s sinking poll numbers and Paxton taking heat for his divorce, the congressmen could see an opening to score points with voters as uncontroversial competitors lacking baggage and poor approval ratings.
Hunt, in particular, appears to be taking advantage of the situation, airing a new ad over 200 miles away from his district in Houston. In the ad, Hunt is pictured with his wife and three children to bolster his image as a family man.
“Faith, family, freedom: These are the values that define Texas, and they’re the values that define Wesley Hunt,” the narrator says.
The ad is an unspecified contrast between the congressman and Paxton. Angela Paxton said earlier this month that she was divorcing the attorney general on “biblical grounds” and alleged that he committed adultery. Ken Paxton also faced an impeachment trial in 2023 but was acquitted on allegations of corruption and bribery.
The ad is costing Hunt, who has not formally launched a bid, six figures to air in the Houston and Dallas markets, per Axios. A separate ad highlighting Hunt’s military experience is airing in the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Waco, and Amarillo areas, as well.
Jackson, who was the White House physician during President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Barack Obama’s second, is stoking speculation about a Senate run after he met with White House officials to discuss Texas politics last week, per Semafor.
If Hunt or Jackson runs for Senate, they will be without the support of a few of their colleagues. Reps. Lance Gooden (R-TX) and Troy Nehls (R-TX) have endorsed Paxton.
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An endorsement from Trump could heavily influence the GOP primary in Texas, but so far, the president has remained neutral in Cornyn and Paxton’s feud. Jackson is a close ally of Trump’s, as the president attempted to make him the veterans affairs secretary during his first term. However, Jackson was blocked after allegations of mismanagement while serving as White House physician.
Hunt has also made trips to the White House to meet with aides at least twice, including Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles and political director James Blair. The meetings came before and after Paxton announced his bid for the Senate. Hunt served as a key playmaker for Trump during the 2024 campaign, working to bring black voters into the Republican base.
Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this report.