An early analysis of the 2024 House races projects that there will be 22 seats up for grabs in the lower chamber as both parties attempt to secure the majority.
The Sabato's Crystal Ball, an political analysis put out by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, labeled a number of seats as toss-ups, including the embattled Rep. George Santos (R-NY) and Katie Porter (D-CA).
Here are 10 of the 22 seats projected to be up for grabs in 2024.
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE DEEMED A TOSS-UP IN NEW RATINGS FOR 2024 ELECTION
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA)
Porter is leaving her seat in California's 47th district behind, as she is pursuing retiring Dianne Feinstein's (D-CA) Senate seat. Despite the district voting for President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points, Porter only won in 2022 by 3.5 percentage points, signaling the district's status as a toss-up. Much of Porter's victory in the last cycle was due to her fundraising abilities, signaling a tough fight for Democrats if they are unable to find a replacement.
Rep. George Santos (R-NY)
Santos handily won over his Democratic rival in 2022 by 7.5 percentage points, but will now face a difficult challenge in 2024, following revelations that he had lied about multiple parts of his resume. If Santos isn't kicked out of Congress before 2024, the district could flip back over to the Democrats, despite Republicans just flipping the seat in 2022. However, Republicans could fare better if Santos is unseated in the Republican primary, or if he decides to resign rather than run again.
The freshman lawmaker currently faces multiple investigations into his finances by the House Ethics Committee.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)
Slotkin, who positions herself as a centrist Democrat, triumphed over her Republican opponent by five percentage points in 2022. However, she might be gearing up for a run for Michigan's Senate seat. The uncertainty about who may replace her should she decide to run for the upper chamber leaves the district labeled a toss-up. However, if she were to instead run for reelection, the seat would instead lean Democrat.
Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY)
D'Esposito who won one of the bluest seats of any Republican, with New York's 4th district having voted for Biden in 2020. As the House race in 2024 will coincide with the presidential election, Democrats are hoping that enthusiasm for Biden will translate down the ticket. D'Esposito won a relatively narrow victory, at 3.8 percentage points, meaning he is in for a challenge in 2024.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)
Kaptur, 76, is currently the longest-serving woman in Congress, having first took office in 1983. She handily won over Republican challenger J.R. Majewski, by 13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a scandal that tanked the latter's campaign. Kaptur's seniority could translate into voter fatigue, allowing a Republican to pose a real challenge in 2024.
Rep. Marie Perez (D-WA)
Perez won one of the most narrow victories of 2022, defeating rival Joe Kent by just 0.7 percentage points, with the results only being reached days after. The narrow margin of her victory in a typically more conservative area gives her the status as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2024.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY)
Lawler was one of five Republicans to win a seat in New York in a district that voted for Biden in 2020. Democrats hope that enthusiasm for Biden in 2024 will carry over into unseating Lawler, turning the district completely blue.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA)
Garcia won a district that had voted double digits for Biden in 2020. However, Democrats are optimistic about unseating him in the next election. Former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides recently announced he would be challenging Garcia in 2024.
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA)
Valadao is one of three Californians that won in a district that voted double digits for Biden in 2020. Democrats are hoping that enthusiasm for Biden in 2024 will result in a local blue wave that will wash Valadao, and the other two Republicans, away.
Valadao defeated his Democratic challenger, Assemblyman Rudy Salas, in the race to represent California’s 22nd Congressional District in 2022, in what was one of the most heated and expensive House battles in the country.
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Rep. Don Davis (D-NC)
Davis, who won North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District in 2022, will face a tough reelection race as the state is poised to have its congressional districts redrawn for the 2024 cycle, this time favoring Republicans.
Davis's district is one of four seats poised for redistricting, turning the blue district into a toss up that leans in Republicans favor.
The 12 other House races rated as toss ups by the Crystal Ball are as follows: David Schweikert (R-AZ), John Duarte (R-CA), Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Marc Molinaro (R-NY), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC) Brandon Williams (R-NY), Greg Landsman (D-OH), Lori Michelle Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), Emilia Sykes (D-OH), Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Susan Wild (D-PA).