House Democrats in vulnerable districts appear to be falling behind Republicans similarly positioned to them in the first quarter of 2023, as incumbent House Republicans posted a strong fundraising term for various swing districts.
Among the 39 seats rated as a toss-up, lean Republican, or lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report, 17 out of the 20 worst fundraisers among vulnerable incumbents for the first quarter were Democrats, per Axios.
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The worst performer of all the incumbents was embattled Rep. George Santos (R-NY), who only raised $5,333.26. He announced a reelection bid earlier this month.
Of the vulnerable Democrats, the worst performers were Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), who raised $222,248.50; Jeff Jackson (D-NC), who brought in $216,455.57; and Don Davis (D-NC), who raised $160,087.89, according to Federal Election Commission data.
The North Carolina congressional map may be redrawn before the next election as the state's Supreme Court hears a challenge to the currently enacted one, possibly leaving Davis and Jackson in more vulnerable races than they would be in their current districts.
Conversely, 16 of the top 19 fundraisers in the toss-up, lean Republican, or lean Democratic districts were GOP incumbents.
The top fundraiser among vulnerable incumbents was Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), who brought in $1,155,020.77 from Jan. 1-March 31, but the next five top fundraisers were all Republicans.
Reps. Michelle Steel (R-CA) brought in $1,077,098.21, Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) raised $1,020,778.37, Ken Calvert (R-CA) brought in $1,011,274.18, Mike Lawler (R-NY) raised $849,158.18, and Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) brought in $831,271.31.
"Money and message makes a majority, and our members are sprinting out of the blocks to build formidable war chests and tell their stories," Jack Pandol, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman, said in a statement to the outlet.
Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) also had a strong first quarter, finishing with $823,813.43 raised, being the second-largest Democratic fundraiser among the vulnerable incumbents. Ryan and Perez were among the 37 seats the NRCC said it is targeting for the 2024 elections.
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Republicans retook the House in the 2022 elections, but not by an overwhelming majority despite predictions of a "red wave," leaving House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) with a small majority to work with.
For the 2024 election, the GOP is hoping to expand its narrow majority in light of several losses in tight races in 2022.