The Supreme Court has issued a litany of unanimous decisions in recent weeks, as the justices save rulings in the most contentious cases for the end of their term.

The high court is ideologically divided 6-3 between Republican- and Democratic-appointed justices, but decisions along those ideological lines tend to be less common than conventional wisdom would suggest. The contrast between that general perception and reality was underscored last week and this week as the justices handed down a number of unanimous or nearly unanimous decisions.

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The high court recently issued unanimous rulings on major cases involving gunmaker liability, “reverse discrimination,” government liability for incidents, and religious liberty. The most recent decision release days by the Supreme Court, June 5 and 12, delivered nine 9-0 decisions and three 8-1 decisions.

Continues a trend counter to traditional narrative

While some Democrats have advocated packing the high court due to the likelihood that the justices will rule solely along ideological lines, the Supreme Court has so far this term defied breaking that neatly in most decisions.

Of the 44 opinions the Supreme Court has released on its docket for the 2024-25 term as of Thursday, none of them have been 6-3 splits. Half of the opinions have been 9-0, along with one 8-0 unanimous opinion due to a recusal and four 8-1 decisions.

There has still been a significant number of divided opinions, including eight 7-2 decisions, one 5-3 decision, and seven 5-4 decisions.

With only 21 decisions remaining in the term, the number of 6-3 decisions will be lower than during the 2023-24 term. An analysis from Empirical SCOTUS of the 2023-24 term found that there were 22 decisions during that term, which were split 6-3 among various cases.

During the 2024-25 term, there have already been more cases that were split 5-4, seven this term so far versus five during the last term, and more decisions split 8-1, four this term compared to two in the last term.

In both this term and the last term, the most common split was 9-0. In the 2023-24 term, there were 27 decisions that were 9-0, while so far in the 2024-25 term, there have been 22 decisions where the high court ruled 9-0.

Split decisions likely to come

While the high court has issued few decisions divided sharply on ideological lines, the remaining cases to be decided this term appear more likely to have those splits.

The Supreme Court is set to rule on cases involving key issues where, during oral arguments, the justices appeared to fall on different sides of the argument based on their ideological leanings. Attempting to make predictions about rulings based on oral arguments can be unreliable, but the lines of questioning do tend to offer some insight into how the justices are thinking about their cases.

Polarizing issues are at the center of several of the remaining cases, including United States v. Skrmetti, in which the justices will rule on whether a Tennessee law restricting transgender medical procedures for minors violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. During oral arguments, conservative and liberal justices largely appeared to be on separate sides of the matter.

Some legal analysts believe the remaining cases will largely be written by conservative justices, which could increase the chances of ideological splits in the decision. Ed Whelan, of the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a National Review columnist, believes the remaining majority opinions will be written primarily by the conservative justices due to the significant number of majority opinions already written by liberal justices this term.

TOP CASES THE SUPREME COURT WILL DECIDE AT THE END OF THIS TERM

“Which means that of remaining 21 cases, you should expect majority opinions by Sotomayor, Kagan, or Jackson in a grand total of only 4,” Whelan said on X. “Chief [Justice John Roberts] tries to equalize assignments over course of year, so everyone should get around 6. It’s a sign of conservative dominance that [Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson] gets assignment to write unanimous opinion against habeas petitioner.”

The next Supreme Court opinion release day scheduled is Wednesday, and the high court is expected to release the remainder of its decisions by the end of the month.