All the fussing about the inevitable submergence of Earth’s islands and flooding of its continental coasts is debunked by simple island-watching.
In a fit of unintelligent climate foresight that would leave Greta Thunberg’s jaw agape, today the United Nations’s executive climate secretary, Simon Stiell, prophesied that humanity has two years left “to save the world” from climate change. The hysteria is strong with this one.
Fortunately for him, a study published in the International Journal of Digital Earth found that, contrary to mainstream belief, islands worldwide are experiencing a net expansion of their surfaces. Researchers observed the surface trends of over 13,000 islands throughout Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean Sea from 1990 to 2020.
What the researchers found was that “over the past 30 years, fewer islands experienced landward erosion compared to those undergoing seaward accretion. Importantly, regardless of human disturbance, about 80% of islands underwent shoreline changes naturally, without human interference.”
Islands worldwide experienced a net expansion in the last three decades of 157.21 km2. In the first decade, there was a net decrease of 259.33km2. In the second decade, there was a net increase of 369.67 km2. This was continued in the third decade by a net increase of 32.67 km2.
On top of that, only a small percentage of those shoreline changes are attributed to human activity. Only 21.06% of coastal erosion was caused by human disturbance, while 78.94% of it was due to natural causes. Likewise, only 22.13% of coastal expansion was caused by human disturbance, while 77.87% of it was due to natural causes.
The results of their study strongly rebuff the mainstream scientific claim that human activity is the primary cause of rising sea levels, as it shows that a significant majority of recent past examples are caused naturally.
For example, an earlier study published in the journal Science made such a claim regarding glacial melting, finding that two-thirds of it is directly attributable to human activity after watching glacial trends since 1991.
Ben Marzeion, a climate scientist and one of the study’s researchers, told MSNBC, “It is actually possible to say really robustly it is humans which are responsible for the melting glaciers.”
“It seems to be so obvious that when it is getting warmer — and it is getting warmer because of human activity — the glaciers are melting because of human activity.”
Richard Alley, a glaciologist, assured MSNBC that Marzeion’s findings were entirely irrefutable: “At some level, this is the pound on the table ‘no there are no holes in this [argument].’ We’ve done the work. We’ve done the work. We’ve done the work.”
He added, “There is a memory in the glacier system. That means what you’ve seen, you are not done … the past is a guide to the future.”
That sentiment is precisely what drives the environmental activists in Western governments to enact green policies, regardless of their damage on their civilian populations. The European Union’s Green Agenda has stirred the farming population of Europe into ongoing continental uproar. President Joe Biden continues to undermine domestic functionality in his refusal to tap into the land’s vast oil pockets and his hesitancy to purchase oil overseas.
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Interestingly enough, Marzeion admitted that the natural process of glacial melting and rising sea levels is out of human control: “Over the next 50 years or so, there is hardly anything we can do about it. Whether we really limit the greenhouse gas emissions or not, the glaciers are going to continue to melt.”
Often, previously understood and agreed-upon scientific consensus requires correction. There is no shame in that; rather, there is honor and humility in it. What is truly irresponsible is denying even the possibility of incorrect assumptions and allowing the world to harm itself based on faulty conclusions.
Parker Miller is a 2024 Washington Examiner Winter Fellow.