President Donald Trump is facing political pressure over too-high inflation, in what could be a key challenge for Republicans heading into the midterm elections next year.

Inflation under former President Joe Biden reached highs not seen since the 1970s. Voter discontent with high prices helped Trump best then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest, as Trump hammered Democrats as responsible for inflation.

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Yet, two-thirds of a year into his term, Trump has not yet been able to control price growth. Inflation has trended the wrong way in recent months, and he has implemented several policies that could add upward pressure to prices.

Many of the rising prices are ones that impose hardship directly on households. Electricity prices in August were 6.2% higher on the year, according to the consumer price index, and used cars cost 6% more.

Grocery prices, paid by families weekly, are also still going higher. Meat products have risen on average 7.3% over the past 12 months, with steak prices rising the most, 16.6%. Chicken prices are up 2.8%.

Prices for meals at restaurants are up nearly 4% and have risen by 30% in the past five years.

There are some positives for consumers, such as gas prices falling 6.6% over the past year and new car prices only rising by 0.7%, although higher interest rates still make buying a new vehicle untenable for many people. Egg prices, too, have fallen dramatically. They were in focus when Trump took office because they had risen in price to about $8 for a dozen, due to the bird flu hitting supply, but have since fallen to near $2, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Still, inflation appears to have leveled off at a relatively high rate by historical standards, and families are paying far higher prices than just a few years ago.

Americans largely report that they are dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of inflation and the economy. That dynamic could doom Republicans’ efforts to maintain control of the House and Senate next year.

“People didn’t think the economy was working when Biden was president, so they fired him and they replaced him with Trump,” said Peter Loge, director of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs. “People don’t think the economy is working under Trump, and so the risk for Republicans is a bunch of them will get fired in the upcoming elections.”

Still, the White House points to changes like deregulation and tax cuts that will continue to help consumers in the coming months and years.

The data

Inflation stood at 2.9% for the year ending in August, according to the CPI. In the past three months, though, it’s been running even hotter, at a 3.5% annualized rate, noted Jai Kedia, an economist at the Cato Institute. Other indexes, such as the one preferred by the Federal Reserve, also show inflation rising in recent months.

And households see more inflation in store. Year-ahead inflation expectations are at 4.7% in the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, well above the normal range seen in the years before the Biden-era inflation.

Voters’ worries about inflation have translated into a dip in Trump’s economic approval ratings.

A new Reuters-Ipsos poll released this week found that a 54% majority thinks the economy is on the wrong track. Additionally, it found that 35% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and even fewer, 28%, approve of how he has handled the cost of living.

Trump’s polling on the economy has been worse than his overall approval ratings, a reversal from his first term, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“For whatever he may say about grocery prices or this or that … it is kind of hard to spin like, if people are upset about inflation and they notice things being more expensive, they’re just going to notice that,” Kondik told the Washington Examiner. “It doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you can really talk your way out of.”

Still, other polling shows better trends for Trump. A recent McLaughlin & Associates national survey found that the percentage of people who say the country is on the right track has risen 10 percentage points to 44% since Trump’s inauguration. And while that is less than the 49% who say the country is on the wrong track, the percentage of people saying it is on the wrong track has dropped 16 points.

The complicating factors

A number of actions taken by the Trump administration could easily push prices higher, including its tariffs, the crackdown on immigration, and the threats to drugmakers, as well as the pressure put on the Fed to lower rates.

Trump and several of his officials have called on the central bank to lower its interest rate target immediately by a full percentage point or more. Trump has suggested that the Fed’s target could go as low as 1%, versus the 4% to 4.25% range officials chose at their meeting this month.

Such steep rate cuts could drive up inflation, Kedia said.

“If he genuinely is concerned about keeping prices down, that would not be advisable at all,” he said.

By lowering interest rates, the Fed could spur more borrowing for purchases, such as houses, cars, appliances, and more. But added spending could translate to higher inflationary pressure.

Simultaneously, Trump’s tariff agenda has been the most aggressive in modern history. Although the effects of the tariffs are still unclear, they could easily push up prices for many important household items, such as food, clothes, and appliances.

Some economists have warned that the crackdown on immigration could raise prices by lowering the labor supply. Already, the drop in immigration has slowed monthly job growth. Analysts have warned, for example, that the administration’s policies could push up house prices, as immigrants make up a significant portion of the construction industry.

When contacted by the Washington Examiner, the White House pointed out some of the supply-side reforms it has enacted, such as tax cuts and deregulations, and said that the best is yet to come for consumers.

For instance, the massive tax cut extensions and new tax cuts that Trump and Republicans were able to secure should be helpful to consumers on the supply side, it said.

“Democrats who abetted Joe Biden’s inflation crisis need to confront the reality that inflation has been trending at a cool and low annualized rate of 2.3% since President Trump took office,” spokesman Kush Desai said. “As the administration’s supply-side reforms of rapid deregulation, tax cuts, and energy abundance continue to take effect, Americans can rest assured that the best is yet to come.”

The politics

All this comes in the context of a looming midterm showdown.

Democrats will undoubtedly use polling on the economy to their advantage and emphasize that inflation still hasn’t fallen to comfortable levels.

The stakes are high for Republicans, as they control the government. If Democrats are able to snag either the House or the Senate, it would make the continued implementation of Trump’s agenda much more challenging.

Loge pointed out that, despite all the data, perceptions of the economy are less about numbers and more about how people personally feel they are doing.

“A lot of people are nervous about their own finances and are nervous about what might happen in the future, and they project that feeling onto the broader economy,” he told the Washington Examiner.

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Kondik thinks the economy and inflation could eclipse other political considerations, including ones that might benefit Republicans, if perceptions don’t change over the next year or so. Recent polling shows that inflation is the top economic issue on consumers’ minds.

“Republicans are probably going to want the campaign to be about other things next year, but it’s just kind of a huge elephant in the room in terms of the issues,” Kondik said.