Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is turning more of her attention to New York and, more specifically, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) as she fans speculation that she has her sights on the governor’s mansion.

The House seat Stefanik has held since 2015 is becoming a de facto campaign bully pulpit for Stefanik, who has spent weeks attacking Hochul in press releases, on television, and even in hearings.

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Stefanik has not launched a campaign, and GOP leadership has taken steps to convince her to stay in the House, but she is widely believed to be laying the groundwork for a gubernatorial run after President Donald Trump pulled her nomination to be U.N. ambassador, citing Republicans’ thin House margins.

In addition to her attacks, Stefanik has criss-crossed New York to meet with party officials and earlier this month created a PAC to support local GOP candidates.

Stefanik said in a statement to the Washington Examiner that she’s “honored” by the encouragement she’s received to seek Hochul’s job. Hochul is running for a second term with underwater polling and a primary challenge from her lieutenant governor.

Stefanik is believed to have the support of Trump, who seemed to urge possible primary rivals, among them Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), to stay in their current positions last month.

“I’m grateful for that outpouring of support from not just Republicans, but Independents and Democrats as well,” Stefanik said. “We must unify to save New York from the catastrophic failed leadership of Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America.”

Stefanik mounts ‘shadow campaign’ against Hochul

Since her name was withdrawn from the United Nations role in March, Stefanik has amped up her attacks on Hochul and her policies, from congestion pricing to immigration enforcement to high taxes. 

Many of Stefanik’s press releases, sent multiple times a day from her official and campaign accounts, focus on Hochul, a steady drumbeat of attacks that she has paired with appearances on Fox News, Newsmax, and local outlets to bolster her message: Democratic leadership has destroyed New York, and it needs a new leader. 

In an off-cycle year, Stefanik doesn’t have many opportunities to come face-to-face with Hochul. But House Republicans presented her with a golden opportunity earlier this month, when the Oversight Committee held a hearing on immigration featuring testimony from “sanctuary state” governors including Hochul.

Stefanik was “waived” onto the committee for the hearing, using her perch to grill Hochul over instances of crime committed by illegal immigrants under her tenure.

“They are walking on the streets because of your policies,” Stefanik said as she listed off the names of alleged criminals.

Hochul framed the exchange as Stefanik’s attempt to steal the political spotlight, at one point accusing her of seeking a “viral moment.”

One New York Republican official, granted anonymity to speak about party affairs, said Stefanik is definitely running a “shadow campaign” for governor and is making the “appropriate moves.” 

Stefanik has also toured the state of New York to bolster fellow Republicans. She held an event on Tuesday with all of the city GOP chairs and state officials. Last weekend, she headed to Suffolk County to support Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) and held a get-out-the-vote event in Smithtown to aid a GOP incumbent in his primary.

Stefanik moves past UN ambassador letdown

Dubbed a rising star by Trump, Stefanik has been on an upward trajectory since she arrived on Capitol Hill in 2014. The youngest woman in history to be elected to Congress at the time, Stefanik cemented herself as a powerful GOP playmaker at an age earlier than most lawmakers and government officials. 

She became known as one of the president’s “attack dogs” during the House’s impeachment hearings and in May 2021 became House GOP conference chairwoman after then-Rep. Liz Cheney was removed due to her opposition to Trump.

Stefanik seemed to hit the jackpot after Trump was reelected last November, with the president selecting her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. But thin margins in the House prompted Trump to pull her nomination in March. 

With Stefanik no longer in consideration for the U.N. ambassadorship, speculation had swirled over whether she would remain in Congress. She didn’t vote in the House from the time Trump withdrew her nomination on March 27 until April 9, while reports surfaced of tensions with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

Johnson announced she would become the chairwoman of House GOP leadership, a consolation position created since she had relinquished her original leadership role, and he gave her back a coveted spot on the Intelligence Committee.

But her withdrawn nomination was soon followed by anonymously sourced stories that she was considering a run for governor after the letdown.

“She’s in this awkward position where she is now stuck in the House, but she lost her leadership position that she’d had, Republican conference chair, because she gave that up because she thought she was going to the administration,” said Erin Covey, a House analyst for the Cook Political Report.

“She had this rise, and I think she is not someone who is going to want to sit around at a leadership position that was created at the last minute for her,” Covey added. “And so it’s at that point, she looks at like the next kind of step up the ladder politically, and the New York governor’s race seems like a prime opportunity.”

Stefanik faces long odds in blue New York

If Stefanik were to jump into the race, it’s possible she could face Lawler, a fellow New York Republican, in the gubernatorial primary. Both would be vying for Trump’s endorsement, though Trump endorsed Lawler for another run in the House in May.

The move was interpreted as a nudge for him to stay in his seat, but Lawler confirmed in an interview with the Washington Examiner that he is still exploring a gubernatorial bid and plans to make a decision “soon.”

The primary could become a centrist-Trump loyalist split screen if both compete for the Republican nomination. Stefanik began her House tenure as a centrist, as Lawler is today, but she has since aligned herself closely with Trump.

She could find herself performing well with Republican voters, but the Democratic lean of the general electorate would prove a greater challenge for her candidacy.

Stefanik has “already moved so heavily to the right from where she had started when she was first elected to Congress, and pivoting back to the center in a general election would be very difficult for her, particularly after she has already shown herself to be one of Trump’s most loyal allies in Congress,” Covey said. 

A May poll from Siena College Research Institute found 35% of Republicans would vote for Stefanik, followed by Lawler with 22% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with 11%. Prior to including Stefanik, the institute’s April poll found Blakeman leading Lawler, 28% to 22%.

The New York GOP official called both Stefanik and Lawler “pitbulls” while suggesting a contested primary would be damaging for the party. 

“Running against them will not be easy. If the two of them ran against each other, that would be something I’d rather not see, just because they probably would kill each other,” the official said.

No Republican has won statewide in New York since George Pataki won his third term as governor 23 years ago. But Hochul’s victory in 2022, in which she won by only six points, was one of the closest gubernatorial races in New York “in a generation,” Siena Institute pollster Steven Greenberg told the Washington Examiner.

Greenberg said it’s too early to tell whether Stefanik or Lawler has the better chance of beating Hochul, given it’s a year out from the primary. But, he said, “Hochul is not in the strongest position as an incumbent would like to be.”

“Never once, in a state where 49% of the enrolled voters are Democrats, never once has Hochul’s favorability rating hit 50. So is she vulnerable? Yes,” Greenberg said.

“Traditionally, in New York, it would be to a more moderate Republican, a la Mike Lawler, than a Stefanik or a Blakeman,” the pollster added. “I don’t know if we live in traditional times anymore.”

When asked what would set his candidacy apart, Lawler said he has a “proven track record” of winning a House district that recent Democratic presidential candidates have carried.

“We’ve been able to build the coalition and the consensus that is needed to get to 50 plus 1,” Lawler said. 

Both Covey and Greenberg said the Republican candidate will need to appeal across the aisle, something on which Lawler may have a leg up over Stefanik. Still, the New York GOP official said if Stefanik were to run and lose, she can still come out a winner in a general election contest.

“Elise has tremendous respect in Trump world and whatnot,” the official said. “So even if she were to run and lose, certainly I think there’d be opportunities for her in a Trump administration for the last few years of it.”

JEFFRIES SAYS STEFANIK SHOULD RUN IN NEW YORK GOVERNOR’S RACE

The official compared Stefanik to current Environmental Protection Agency head Lee Zeldin, who ran unsuccessfully against Hochul in 2022, rising to a Cabinet position despite his relatively narrow loss.

“I could absolutely see Elise, who’s a prolific fundraiser, tough as nails, if she were to lose, but lose strong, she could put herself in a position for VP,” the official said. “She’s very talented. This would not be the end of her, to say the least.”

Marisa Schultz contributed to this report.