The 2028 election seems as if it is a lifetime away. Still, some Democrats are already striving for the prize of becoming the party’s presidential nominee. The problem for the Democrats is that the contenders thus far are underwhelming. Many Democrats must be thinking, “Can’t we do better?”

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President Donald Trump’s defeat of former Vice President Kamala Harris in the Electoral College and the popular vote was one of the most demoralizing losses for a major political party, probably since 1992, when an upstart young governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, defeated sitting President George H.W. Bush.

To understand the obstacles the Democrats face in the future, we have to see how they got here. How did victory escape them in 2024?

Harris greatly benefited from a press corps that appeared rejuvenated after her ascension to the nomination following a party revolt against then-President Joe Biden. It took one debate for Democrats to reckon with their duplicity in assuring the public that Biden was perfectly fine and not suffering from the impact of trying to run the country and a presidential campaign at 81 years old.

The “joy” factor was off the charts, as evidenced by the headlines of news outlets that often read like press releases, and the money poured in fast, reaching $1 billion by early October. Unlike Biden, Harris got under Trump’s skin in their one debate, with Trump at one point yelling, “They’re eating the dogs! They’re eating the cats!” It was a reference to Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. It became a viral social media meme, with some creators setting it to music.

Harris made one significant miscalculation that, while not necessarily costing her the election, revealed how much pull the progressive Left has on the Democratic Party. There was ample reason for Harris to choose Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as her running mate. Shapiro, a centrist within the contours of the modern Democratic Party, was the sitting governor of a crucial battleground state, where he had also been attorney general and was previously in the state legislature.

He’s also Jewish. And while no Democrat will admit that it was a factor in why he was passed over, it defies all common sense and logic to deny it. The conflict in Gaza over Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, became a source of conflict within the Democratic Party, with a sizable portion of elected officials and party activists protesting against Israel despite the slaughter of more than 1,000 innocent people.

Instead, Harris chose Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), the 60-year-old (who looked closer to 70) progressive who immediately faced scrutiny for a resume padded like that of a desperate college graduate looking for their first job. Democratic pundits and talking heads thought Walz was a brilliant choice since he hunted and wore flannel shirts. Surely, he’d connect with working-class voters. The façade did not hold.

And therein lies the problem for any Democrat who wants to run in 2028. It is not clear that in the Trump era, Democrats who have tried to move to the center will appeal to the party’s base. But most voters reject the ideology of the progressive Left that hyperfocuses on divisive issues it thinks have broad appeal. Whether it is anti-Israel activism, transgenderism and gender identity, racial intersectionality, abortion, or immigration, their stances are far outside the mainstream of the electorate. Anyone looking to get the 2028 nomination must walk a fine line.

Enter Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). If there were ever a politician who better defined ambition and the ability to sidestep his or her own blundering, one would be hard-pressed to name him or her. Newsom is the personification of the Peter principle, a theory that says people will rise until they reach their level of incompetence. Newsom’s first foray into politics was volunteering for Willie Brown’s run for San Francisco mayor. Newsom’s reward following Brown’s win was an appointment to the Parking and Traffic Commission, which he later chaired. That was followed by being the San Francisco mayor, lieutenant governor, and then governor.

An example of the extent of Newsom’s singular focus on his political future is that he launched a new podcast while many residents in Los Angeles were sifting through the ashes of their homes, which were destroyed by wildfires. His first guest? Charlie Kirk, of Turning Point USA. During that show, Newsom said he agreed that biologically male athletes should not compete with girls in sports, calling it “deeply unfair.”

The reaction from LGBT activists was swift.

Advocates for Trans Equality Chief Strategic Programs Officer Anya Marino said, “Governor Newsom’s statements only further fuel the far-right’s campaign to dehumanize trans people.”

Kelley Robinson, the president of the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest LGBT advocacy group, told the New York Times, “Our message to Governor Newsom and all leaders across the country is simple: The path to 2028 isn’t paved with the betrayal of vulnerable communities.”

However, Newsom knows the issue is not a winner for Democrats. Polling says that a large majority of people agree with him. In January, a New York Times-Ipsos poll found that 79% of Americans, including 67% of Democrats, said biological men identifying as transgender female athletes should not be allowed to play in women’s sports.

Newsom’s next two guests were conservative radio talk show host Michael Savage and former White House chief strategist and War Room host Steve Bannon. The show also featured Walz, but Democrats have been bewildered as to why Newsom would entertain having MAGA figures on the show. A recent story in the New Yorker called the show “embarrassing.” Former Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a star in the anti-Trump world, said on X, “Many of us on the right sacrificed careers to fight Bannon, and Newsom is trying to make a career and a presidential run by building him up. Unforgivable and insane.”

It’s not as if Newsom is about to embrace the MAGA movement. Still, clearly, he sees Harris’s significant loss to Trump as a means of finding a path for another California Democrat to get the nomination in 2028.

One possible 2028 Democratic contender who fared better than Newsom in a recent Morning Consult poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg took the 2020 presidential primary by storm despite only his experience as a midsize city mayor in South Bend, Indiana, and he outraised governors and senators on his way to an Iowa caucus victory in 2020. His campaign fizzled after losses in New Hampshire and Nevada. His inability to gain Latino and black voters cost him in South Carolina, and he dropped out of the race after finishing fourth.

Buttigieg’s political career was boosted when Biden tapped him to lead the Transportation Department. As much as he tries to gloss it over, his tenure was not one for the books. Air and rail supply chain problems, a derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, a Southwest Airlines meltdown that caused thousands of flight delays and cancellations, and close calls on runways often left him scrambling. His decision to take two months of parental leave in 2021 didn’t sit well with congressional Republicans, especially since it was never announced, and the administration never named an acting secretary at the time.

Buttigieg’s strength is that he is not averse to going on Fox News and scrapping with hosts, making him a favorite on social media and among the activist class of the Democratic Party. He recently turned down an opportunity to run for the Senate in Michigan despite the announced retirement of senior Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

He obviously sees a path to the presidential nomination. He has the capability to raise a lot of money, and nary a day goes by when he is not out front, criticizing the Trump administration, whatever the issue. He’s also the quintessential Washington, D.C., “class president” type whom pundits and talking heads enjoy obsessing over when discussing presidential contenders. High school valedictorian, winner of the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum’s Profiles in Courage essay contest. Harvard graduate and Rhodes scholar.

Despite his pedigree and willingness to spar with conservatives on X and Fox News, Buttigieg still has a significant mountain to climb. While he was ahead of Newsom in the recent Morning Consult poll, Harris is the clear favorite by far. She received 36% in that poll. Buttigieg was 10%, and Newsom was 5% with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Walz.

Harris, like Newsom, has a history of moving her career upward without much in the way of accomplishments to show for it. Some people bristle at the notion that her romantic relationship with Brown, the former speaker of the California Assembly and San Francisco mayor, boosted her career. But Brown, who is 30 years Harris’s senior, appointed her to the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Assistance Commission in 1994.

She parlayed that and her connection with Brown to get elected as the San Francisco district attorney. That role gave her statewide name recognition, propelling her to state attorney general. When longtime California Sen. Barbara Boxer announced her retirement, Harris jumped into the race, beating Loretta Sanchez for the job. After only two years in the Senate, she announced her presidential run.

That presidential campaign was a failure. Harris gained momentum briefly when, in the second Democratic debate, she attacked her future running mate and boss, Biden, for his record on forced busing to promote school integration and “working with segregationists” in the Senate to pass legislation. Outside of that, however, her campaign was a dud, and she dropped out in 2019 before a single vote was cast.

Harris becoming Biden’s running mate was a matter of circumstance more than anything else. Following the death of George Floyd, the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, and the corresponding violence and riots in cities across the United States, Biden was under tremendous pressure (though he later denied it) to choose not only a black running mate but also a female black running mate. Harris won out.

DEMOCRATS DON’T WANT KAMALA HARRIS 

While Harris leads the way right now, the last sitting vice president to run for the top spot, lose, and return to win the White House in a later election was Richard Nixon. If Democrats expect to win in 2028, it’s difficult to see how the party will succeed with three left-wing prospects currently leading among Democratic voters. The fact that Ocasio-Cortez has the same level of support as Newsom is telling in a way that suggests primary voters currently don’t want a true centrist. Additionally, some suggest a “star” candidate, such as billionaire Mark Cuban or even television personality Stephen A. Smith, could be the ticket back to the White House. After all, if a former reality show host who decided whether Andrew Dice Clay or Dennis Rodman would better run a fictional company could do it, why couldn’t they have their turn?

When asked, voters always prioritize the economy. In early 2027, when Democrats begin to announce their candidacies, if the economy is stable — prices are down, interest rates are lower, housing and rental markets are stabilized, and unemployment is low — the argument for change from progressive candidates will fall flat. They might have to start to practice saying, “President JD Vance.” 

Andrea Ruth is a contributor to the Washington Examiner magazine.