Incumbency is often the greatest advantage a candidate has to win a competitive race, thanks to established name recognition and the opportunity to amass a hefty war chest. But with a growing number of lawmakers announcing their retirements from the House, the wide open seats bring a new level of uncertainty to an already unpredictable cycle.
Incumbents have a 94% chance of being reelected to their seats, according to data compiled during the 2022 election cycle. With more seats being vacated, including some in competitive districts, it sets the stage for a handful of pickup opportunities for both Republicans as they seek to defend their slim House majority.
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More than 30 House incumbents have already announced they won’t seek reelection next year, marking one of the highest rates of retirement this early into an election cycle over the last six years. That includes 11 Republicans who have announced they won’t run for reelection in 2024 as well as 20 Democrats, leaving open so far a total of 31 seats that are up for grabs.
Of those, only seven are considered to be competitive seats, all of which are held by Democrats. Those include the seats held by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Dan Kildee (D-MI), which are both rated as toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Another two seats are considered to be highly competitive as well, including the ones held by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Katie Porter (D-CA).
Meanwhile, nearly all 11 Republican districts, with the exception being the seat held by Rep. George Santos (R-NY), are considered to be reliably red.
The 31 announcements so far mark the fastest pace of House retirements at this point in an election cycle since the 2018 midterm elections. There were only 24 at this point in 2022, 27 at this point in 2020, and 31 at this point in 2018.
That puts the 2024 cycle on track to be one of the highest retirement years in recent memory if it can keep pace with 2018, which saw 52 total House retirements. That’s the most incumbent retirements recorded in a single cycle since the 1992 cycle, when 65 members opted not to run for reelection.
To prove that incumbency can greatly position oneself to be reelected in their district, one should look no further than to longtime Democrats such as Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), 83, and Maxine Waters (D-CA), 85. If reelected, Waters will serve out her 18th term in Congress alongside Pelosi, who would be serving her 20th term, making the pair the two most senior members of California's congressional delegation.
New candidates running in a rare open seat must establish their campaigns and differentiate themselves from the rest of the field as it may require them to align themselves with their party’s presidential candidate, according to strategists.
“Members who have been reelected had a chance to define themselves, and when you're running in a presidential election, it's really hard to define yourself apart from who's running atop the ticket,” GOP strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “If you’re running in a swing state as a moderate Republican running a difficult race and you have Trump at the top of the ticket, you're not gonna be able to win by running against Donald Trump … in the same way that you're not going to be a Democrat who's going be able to run against Joe Biden. You're gonna have to stick with your nominee because otherwise, you'll have no chance.”
That could prove a challenge for Democrats running against Republicans who tie themselves to Trump, especially in districts where the former president has an energized base. It could also pose a challenge as open races typically attract crowded fields on both sides of the aisle, making things complicated for party leaders who don't want to get involved in messy primaries.
However, it could still be too early to tell as there are several factors that could be considered insignificant by the time November 2024 rolls around — or other issues that could become more consequential before voters head to the ballot box.
“I think the outcome of whether or not the Republicans keep the majority in the House or if the Democrats take it over is very unpredictable. There are a lot of factors going on,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “There are factors that should advantage Democrats, and there are factors that should advantage the Republicans, and I don't think there's any clear-cut direction for how this thing plays out because of the conflicting pressures.”
There are still several other House seats that could be vacated before the end of the year, which would further complicate both parties’ paths to a House majority. Several states have not yet passed their filing deadlines, adding another layer of uncertainty as party leaders watch their rank-and-file members decide whether or not to run.
States such as Illinois, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas all have filing deadlines in December, with all eyes on the latter state to see what former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) decides for his future plans. The California Republican has previously indicated he would run for reelection but has not yet made a final decision.
Other key states such as Kentucky, Mississippi, and West Virginia have until January for their filing deadlines, meaning the state of play likely won’t become clear until the 2024 primary season is well underway.
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Democratic leaders are especially watching several of those states as high-profile members such as Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), 84, and Jim Clyburn (D-SC), 83, are weighing continuing their decadeslong careers in Congress. Deadlines to declare their candidacy are in February and March, respectively.
“Trying to predict the outcome with so many conflicting factors,” Bannon said, “I think, is a fool's errand.”