House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) razor-thin majority is expected to shrink after Tuesday’s special election in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate is likely to sail to victory to finish the term of the late Rep. Gerry Connolly.
James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who served as Connolly’s chief of staff and is currently a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors member, is likely to defeat Republican Stewart Whitson, a former FBI special agent and Army veteran.
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Connolly, a longtime congressman who died in May, won reelection to his district by 34 points in 2024, so the seat is expected to remain in Democratic hands. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has the race rated a “solid D.”
The current House margin is three seats, with 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. If Walkinshaw is victorious, the majority will shrink to a two-seat margin, meaning the speaker can only afford to lose two GOP votes and still pass legislation along party lines.
This is a small but significant blow to Johnson, particularly as the government funding deadline approaches on Sept. 30. Over a dozen conservatives are often against short-term spending deals, or continuing resolutions, so razor-thin margins give Johnson’s right flank an easy advantage to prevent any bills they don’t like from coming to or passing on the floor.
Other upcoming special elections threaten to narrow Johnson’s majority, as well.
Due to recent deaths in the House Democratic caucus, special elections will be held later this year for the late Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva and the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner. Another special election will be held to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, which could give the GOP a boost ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Grijalva’s special election, set for Sept. 23, won’t change the majority if a Democrat wins, due to House numbers. But if a Democrat holds on to Turner’s seat, that would shrink Johnson’s majority to just a one-vote margin. That election is set for Nov. 4, and Turner’s seat is expected to remain blue, given it is a D+21 district.
But a special election in Green’s old district, set for Dec. 2, would give Republicans a slight reprieve heading into the new year. A Republican victory would boost Johnson back up to a two-seat margin.
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The former congressman has endorsed Matt Van Epps, an Army veteran and the former commissioner of Tennessee’s Department of General Services. Van Epps is facing 10 other men vying for the GOP nomination. Democrats have four candidates competing for the nomination. The race also features Bobby Dodge, the first candidate to run under Elon Musk’s new America Party.
Democrats have won a majority of special elections in 2025, but President Donald Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024, so the GOP is likely to hang onto this seat.