A new forecast estimates that Social Security recipients may only receive a 3.1% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, next year.

The annual COLA is based on the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. The Senior Citizens League, an activist group for senior citizens, calculated that at the current rate, the COLA in 2024 is set to be a 3.1% increase, CBS News reported. In comparison, the COLA last year was an 8.7% increase.

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If the forecast is correct, 2024 will see the lowest COLA in three years. The COLA in 2022 was a 5.9% increase.

The Social Security Administration's announcement of next year's COLA will come in October, so the estimate of a 3.1% increase is likely to change. Still, the projection has remained roughly static since last month, when the projection was a 3% adjustment.

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Mary Johnson, the Social Security and Medicare policy analyst with the Senior Citizens League, noted that many seniors feel the measurements used to calculate the COLA are inaccurate.

"About 53% say that their household expenses in 2022 rose by more than 8.7%, so they didn't feel their COLA adequately covered rising costs in the past year," she said.