Social Security beneficiaries are expected to face a 24% cut in payments by late 2032 following the enactment of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to new projections from a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog.

The projected cut would equal an $18,100 annual benefit cut for a dual-earning, middle-class couple that retires at the start of 2033, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget revealed in an analysis released Thursday. In comparison, a single-income couple at the same class level that retires at the end of the seven-year period would see a lower benefit cut of $13,600 per year.

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“Policymakers pledging not to touch Social Security are implicitly endorsing these deep benefit cuts for 62 million retirees in 2032 and beyond,” the nonprofit organization said. “It is time for policymakers to tell the truth about the program’s finances and to pursue trust fund solutions to head off insolvency and improve the program for current and future generations.”

The new tax law essentially reduces the incoming tax revenue toward Social Security’s trust fund, accelerating the retirement program’s depletion. The drastic cut would take effect once the Social Security trust fund runs out of money in less than a decade.

Retirees may also find it harder to access healthcare due to an 11% cut in Medicare hospital insurance payments, the analysis shows.

The cut percentages would only grow over time, with the cut in Social Security benefits growing to over 30% by 2099.

The size of the benefit cut would vary depending on a given couple’s age, marital status, and work history.

The latest estimates paint a more dire picture than the June Social Security trustees’ report, which showed a 19% benefit cut by 2034.

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“The tax rate cuts and increase in the senior standard deduction from the recently enacted OBBBA would reduce Social Security’s revenue from the income taxation of benefits, increasing the required cut by about a percentage point upon insolvency,” the fiscal watchdog explained. “If the expanded senior standard deduction and other temporary measures of OBBBA are made permanent, the benefit cut would grow larger.”

Trump backed the controversial budget bill as it made progress through Congress. The legislation made the president’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and introduced temporary tax breaks for tips, overtime pay, and Social Security.