While it is still early goings, the second Trump administration crossed the six-month mark on Sunday, and its impact on the economy is beginning to show up in data and public polling.

“Six months is not a long time to have totally revived a major country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social to mark the occasion. “One year ago our Country was DEAD, with almost no hope of revival. Today the USA is the ‘hottest’ and most respected Country anywhere in the World. Happy Anniversary!”

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White House officials are making that case as well, pointing to a series of metrics it says add up to growth in the present and in the future.

Trump officials argue that inflation has been tamed and that tariffs are refilling the Treasury Department’s coffers with minimal pain felt by consumers, though other factors still spell out warning signs for Team Trump that could cause trouble ahead.

The Consumer Price Index has risen at a 2.1% annualized pace since Trump took office, in line with the Federal Reserve’s target 2% rate, and producer prices were flat in June. Meanwhile, manufacturing output rose 1.8% between January and June, while customs and tariff revenue have reached $120 billion since Trump took office.

“During his first six months in office, President Trump has repeatedly embarrassed the panicans who predicted doom and gloom, from inflation to recession,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said. “Under President Trump, Americans have seen an end to Joe Biden’s inflation crisis, multiple expectation-beating jobs reports, record tariff revenue collection, bond and stock market rallies, and historic investment commitments worth trillions that will cement America’s dominance in cutting-edge sectors.”

The White House is especially boastful that economists’ warnings about runaway inflation have not materialized so far, and in some cases, import prices have even fallen.

But not all signs point upward, and trouble could still be on the horizon.

Inflation rose to 2.7% for the year ending in June in the consumer price index, which was a tick higher than expected and up from 2.4% in May. That is not the direction White House officials want to see the number go, and it could give the Federal Reserve another reason not to cut interest rates at its next meeting, something Trump is pushing hard to make happen.

And while the White House was pleased that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment rose in July, the index collapsed following his victory in late 2024 and is only now beginning to recover, up about one point from June.

Similarly, inflation expectations have fallen steadily since May but are only down in relative terms. Expectations for future inflation stood below 3% early in Trump’s term, then surged to nearly 7% amid news of his “Liberation Day” tariffs, and are now down to 4.4%, according to University of Michigan data cited by Goldman Sachs.

Still, the worst fears of tariff-fueled inflation have not come to pass, and the latest consumer surveys suggest voters are getting used to life with import duties as a daily reality.

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The economic outlook could still turn south, but so far things are looking up for Trump, and as an added bonus, gas prices are averaging $3.16 a gallon this summer, according to AAA, their lowest level since 2021. According to the White House, it is only getting started.

“The best is yet to come,” Desai said. “As the pro-growth policies of The One Big Beautiful Bill and new trade deals kick in, America’s economic resurgence under President Trump will only accelerate.”