Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is trailing both Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake for Arizona's highly contested 2024 Senate seat.
A recent poll from Noble Predictive Insights shows Gallego leading the hypothetical three-way Senate race with 39% support, followed by Lake with 33%, and Sinema in last place, with 29% support. The poll surveyed 1,010 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
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The Democrat-turned-independent hasn't said whether she's running for reelection next year, a move that could still sway the race. When Sinema was first elected to the Senate in 2019, she frequently broke with her then-Democratic Party, infuriating party leaders and swaying her appeal with Republicans. If she decides to enter next year's race, her candidacy could spell trouble for both Lake and Gallego, the front-runners for their respective parties.
Arizona will play a key role in the 2024 election, shifting more toward being a full-scale swing state as independents are the largest voter group, edging out Republicans, according to the latest voter registration data.
With the control of the upper chamber on the line, Democrats are eyeing Arizona to maintain the Senate’s slim Democratic majority.
Gallego, who launched his bid for Sinema's seat at the start of the year, has outraised his independent would-be opponent, a good sign for Democrats hoping to flip the seat. Gallego brought in $3.1 million from April 1 through June 30, while Sinema racked up $1.7 million in the same period.
If Sinema decides to jump in, her campaign will likely be focused on winning more Republicans than Democrats, a plan that may be spoiled by Lake, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump.
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Lake, who has still not conceded that she lost the 2022 Arizona governor’s election, appeals to the MAGA-loyal crowd in the battleground state, a group that carried Trump to the White House in 2016 but narrowly favored President Joe Biden in 2020.
In a separate hypothetical three-way race involving the presumptive candidates, Lake leads Gallego by 1 point, 37%-36%, with Sinema trailing behind at 15%, according to recent polling from the Cygnal group.