Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) may be more of a problem for Republicans in the 2024 Arizona Senate race than Democrats.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Sinema and former Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in a three-way matchup, a poll from Noble Predictive Insights's Arizona Public Opinion Pulse shows.
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Gallego has 34%, compared to Sinema with 26% and Lake with 25%, in the survey conducted from July 13-17.
When looking at support based on party affiliation, Sinema garners a higher percentage of GOP voters than Democratic voters despite being a Democrat until December 2022. Among Republican voters, Lake holds 54% compared to Sinema's 25% and Gallego's 10%. Among Democratic voters, Gallego holds 74%, while Sinema only has 13% and Lake has 2%. Independent voters favor Sinema, 38%, compared to Gallego, 24%, or Lake, 16%.
"Congressman Gallego's strength in head-to-head matchups shows his appeal across various demographic groups, making him a formidable candidate in this race. However, Sen. Sinema's entry could create a more complex electoral landscape, given her ability to draw support from independents," Mike Noble, NPI founder and chief of research, said in a statement.
More Republican voters show a willingness to vote for Sinema for reelection than Democrats do. Overall, voters in the Grand Canyon State are at least somewhat willing to support Sinema for another term, 60%-43%, with a majority of independent, 69%-32%, and Republican, 57%-43%, voters also showing a willingness to support her again.
"While Sinema faces challenges within her former party, we shouldn't underestimate her ability to appeal to a broader base. She has managed to attract support from Republicans and independents in the past, which could play a role in the final outcome," Noble said.
Neither Sinema nor Lake has announced runs for the Senate seat, but the independent senator has filed paperwork allowing her to fundraise for a reelection bid, and Lake has strongly hinted at running for the seat.
The poll also shows that in other three-way matchups between Gallego, Sinema, and former Republican Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters or Republican candidate Mark Lamb, Gallego holds the lead over the field, and Sinema cuts more into the GOP than the Democratic vote.
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A recent Morning Consult poll showed Sinema is the sixth least popular senator, with 42% approving of her job performance compared to 43% who disapprove.
The Arizona Senate race for 2024, which is expected to be a three-way race between Sinema, a Democrat, and a Republican, is rated as a "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report.