With a self-imposed deadline of July 4 looming for advancing a major tax and spending package, Republicans are hoping that a brief recess away from Washington might give senators the breathing room they need to resolve key disagreements.
Senators departed the nation’s capital on Wednesday for a weeklong break, leaving behind a swirl of uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.”
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On Monday, the Senate Finance Committee unveiled the final section of its version of the legislation, making several major revisions to the House’s original framework. Among the most notable changes: deeper Medicaid reductions, a less aggressive reversal of green energy tax incentives, and a lower cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.
The bill’s fate hinges on whether GOP leadership can persuade enough Republican senators to set aside their reservations. Only three Senate Republicans can vote “no” on the measure before the legislation would officially fail on the floor, with Vice President JD Vance breaking a 50-50 tie.
Currently, Republican leadership appears to lack the votes required to move the bill through the Senate. Reconciliation is an uncommon Senate procedure that allows budget-related legislation to pass with a simple majority, bypassing the typical 60-vote threshold needed to break a filibuster. Right now, more than three senators are voicing concerns.
“It’s early days, right now I think a fair-minded person could see that the bill in the Senate is pretty much held together with spit,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), speaking with reporters on Wednesday afternoon. “That will change, how quickly it will change, I don’t know.”
“Some of my colleagues have the ability to go…from angel to a-hole in about three seconds,” he added.
During a closed-door meeting with Republican senators on Wednesday, White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles reiterated the July 4 deadline, urging the Senate to pass the legislation next week, according to sources familiar.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said the plan is to put the bill on the floor next week.
“To get it done by the Fourth of July, we need to start on it next week,” Thune told reporters Wednesday.
Exactly how the bill’s language might be revised to win over skeptical Republican senators remains uncertain.
Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) have raised alarms over proposed Medicaid cuts, citing the potential impact on vulnerable communities. Sens. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Mike Lee (R-UT) have concerns over spending levels.
Hawley, in particular, voiced strong opposition to a provision that would lower the cap on state provider taxes, a move he warned could disproportionately harm rural hospitals already operating on thin margins.
“This is my message to leadership, this bill needs work, you’ve got to do something on rural hospitals,” Hawley said.
Thune said he’s working with Hawley and others to help “smooth the rural hospital issue.”
Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) has voiced concerns about changes to the provider tax, a state-imposed fee that helps fund a state’s portion of Medicaid.
“I just don’t want to see us do something that we absolutely regret in every way,” Justice said. “You know down the road, there’s so much good about this bill, it’s unbelievable. We need to work through the edges and stuff like that.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to have objections to a debt-limit increase being included in the bill.
“None of this is really shifting the accumulation of debt or interest. And even with that I could vote for the bill to make the tax cuts permanent, I think good for the economy. But I can’t vote to add $5 trillion,” he said. “At the point, Republicans vote unanimously or virtually unanimously for the debt ceiling, they own the debt.”
Thune was seen huddling with Paul on the Senate floor Tuesday. When asked if he had managed to sway the Kentucky senator’s vote, the Senate Majority Leader quipped, “Has hell frozen over?”
Even if everything stays on track, kicking things off next week would give senators just enough time to power through a likely overnight marathon of amendment votes and wrap up final passage by week’s end, potentially spilling into the weekend.
“I appreciate what we’ve done in the Senate so far…much better than the House version,” said Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS). “We’re working on a few technical and other issues and trying to see if we can get the whole bill in a position to be supported.”
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Once cleared by the Senate, the bill would head back to the House for final approval, which could mean House members are called back to Washington during their planned July 4 recess in order to get the legislation to the president’s desk by the deadline.
“I think we all are trying to be optimistic, but realize the chances of this thing getting ironed out in time, in both chambers, is just really unlikely,” said a Senate GOP aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “I think we are all hoping for the best, but realize getting all of these specific details addressed takes time.”
David Sivak contributed to this report.