The top Senate Republican super PAC projected it will cost tens of millions of dollars to defend incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as numerous polls show he is trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Senate primary.

The Senate Leadership Fund gave a presentation last week, according to Punchbowl News, and urged donors to help fund Cornyn’s reelection campaign. It argued that the incumbent’s loss could cost the GOP more in a general election race should Paxton secure the nomination.

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In one of the presentation slides, the SLF displayed Texas’s many media markets, stressing how large and costly the spending efforts would be.

“The not great news: this is an expensive state with an early timeline. Resources will need to be committed starting this August,” the slide said.

The SLF predicted that it would cost between $25 million and $70 million to help Cornyn secure the Republican nomination, significantly less than the $200 million to $250 million they project will be necessary to help Paxton defeat a Democratic challenger next November.

Cornyn and Paxton’s primary contest is already shaping up to be one of the most contested races of the 2026 cycle. Polling shown during the SLF’s presentation detailed the incumbent senator trailing the state leaders by 17 points in an average of 13 private and public surveys, with many of the polls administered from January to June by groups affiliated with both Cornyn and Paxton.

However, over the last month, Paxton has made headlines due to his recent public divorce from his wife, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton. His connection to the MAGA base could also crack open the door for a Democratic candidate to make waves.

Senate GOP circles are growing increasingly concerned that a Paxton win in the primary could put the seat at risk next November. One slide during the presentation showed Paxton losing to former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who has already launched a Senate bid, by one point. With Cornyn as the GOP nominee, the senator beats Allred by six points.

However, according to the super PAC, primary voters “don’t view Cornyn as conservative.” Nearly 40% of primary voters see the incumbent as “moderate,” while only 12% view him as “very conservative.” This is a stark contrast to Paxton, who is viewed by 47% of GOP primary voters as “very conservative.”

As of now, polling isn’t showing the race between Cornyn and Paxton to be close, and in some surveys, it’s not a competitive contest. However, Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told the Washington Examiner in a statement that it would be “political malpractice” for Republicans to invest over $200 million to keep the Texas seat red if Paxton is the nominee.

“John Cornyn hasn’t been on the ballot in five years. Educating voters about his actual record is job #1 — especially his 99.2% record voting with Trump while President,” Mackowiak said. “All public polling shows Cornyn’s image with Republican voters is solid, and it will continue to grow as voters learn about his actual record. We have a plan to win this race, and we are executing it.”

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GOP operatives and strategists have noted that spending exorbitant resources in Texas, a state President Donald Trump won by double digits, could risk the amount of funds given to competitive battleground states such as North Carolina and Michigan, which are two states with open Senate seats.

The Washington Examiner reached out to the SLF for comment.