Following Russia’s numerous geopolitical gaffes over the past few years, most prominently its botched war in Ukraine, Central Asian states have begun to second-guess their relationship with Vladimir Putin's government.
This is a significant shift.
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The economies of Russia and Central Asia have long been tethered. Whether directly under the Soviet Union or indirectly since the Soviet Union's collapse, the Russians have long been the chief regional power brokers. Even today, Russia is the largest provider of foreign direct investment to the region, while also serving as a large import market for Central Asia’s bountiful reserves of metals and minerals. Russia also hosts hundreds of thousands of Central Asian migrant workers, many of whom come to Moscow and other major cities seeking a better life.
Shortly after the Russian offensive around Kyiv stalled, however, Central Asian governments became more weary of being dragged down along with the Russian economy. They feared sharing in the Western sanctions that began to pile onto Moscow. Russia then lost even more face with its Collective Security Treaty Organization allies following its failure to support Armenia during its border conflict with Azerbaijan. These two compounding factors have begun to drive a stake between Russia and its Central Asian partners.
Then there's China.
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In 2022, China became Central Asia’s largest trading partner, filling in many of the gaps left by the Kremlin’s shortcomings. The value of the trade between China and Central Asian states topped out at more than $70 billion, more than double the value of Central Asian trade with Russia. China has also been investing heavily in infrastructure links with the region as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
Top line: Russia's glory days in Central Asia appear to be fading quickly.
Aidan Springs is a rising Junior at American University and a current National Journalism Center intern.