


In two separate incidents since Sunday, Russian military jets have damaged U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drones operating over Syria by dropping flares into their flight paths. One drone suffered damage to its wing. The other suffered major damage to its propeller. Considering that these drones cost $20 million-$30 million each, the repair bill is likely to be significant.
The drone incidents come as Russia escalates its harassment of U.S. air and ground forces in Syria. Russia has long sought the extrication of U.S. military forces from that nation, seeking to ensure its dominant influence there. But although the U.S. military has made a recent show of sending F-22 and F-35 stealth fighter jets to the region, it appears to have done nothing in response to these attacks.
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That failure to respond is likely because the Biden administration has ordered a no-response policy to incidents involving unmanned aircraft. This fits with the White House's tolerance for Russian aggression against U.S. drones over the Black Sea. As I predicted, it was never going to be enough to deter Russia in Syria simply by releasing press statements on F-22 deployments. Russia respects the practice of resolution, not its pretense.
The Washington Examiner asked the U.S. military's Central Command why it has not deployed fighter jets to escort the MQ-9s when Russian jets approach. The command did not specifically respond but instead directed me to its Air Force component. The Air Force component did not respond. Still, such an escort mission should be a relatively easy task being that the U.S. has full sensor awareness of the location of Russian jets from the moment they take off from their bases to the moment they land. The fighter escort strategy is one that Britain has successfully employed against Russia in the Black Sea.
Top line: It's a very dangerous game to allow Russia to believe it can attack U.S. forces without riposte. To do so is to fuel the worst impulses of the Russian security psyche. It makes the Russians more, not less, likely to attack manned U.S. aircraft or ground positions.
Yet, even if the U.S. is unwilling to respond with force to these attacks, it should make Russia pay for the damage it has caused.
There are ample avenues from where the repair funds might be found. Action, pursuant to new congressional action if necessary, could be taken to sell assets seized from Russian oligarchs. The U.S. has, for example, seized a $300 million yacht belonging to Vladimir Putin/Ramzan Kadyrov crony, Suleyman Kerimov. Selling the boat at 60% of its value would pay for at least 5 MQ-9s to be repaired or new ones to be purchased. This would encourage Russia to consider whether future attacks would, both figuratively and literally, be worth it.
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There would be a secondary advantage to using oligarch assets to pay for drone repairs. Namely, that it would help exploit fissures between Putin and his financial power base. It would also throw the oligarchs off balance by disabusing them of the notion that their assets will be returned once a final-status Ukraine peace accord is agreed. It would thus cleverly but indirectly pressure the Kremlin.
In February 2018, Russia used its Wagner Group mercenary force to conduct an ill-judged attack on a U.S. military position in Syria. The result was then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's order to "annihilate" the Wagner force with airstrikes, causing dozens of fatalities. For the Biden administration, then, a financial response here should be a no-brainer.