Russia's use of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine demonstrates that the threat of Tehran's drone program is now one with global, not regional consequences.
Iran's drone program has greatly benefited Russia over the last year as Tehran has provided it with hundreds of UAVs that are a threat in their simplicity, a Defense Intelligence Agency analyst told a group of reporters on Wednesday. Russia is now working to start producing them in Russia with their assistance.
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"Iran has successfully identified and exploited a niche market for these low-cost single-purpose attack drones," Lt. Col. Robert Carter, DIA spokesman, told the Washington Examiner.
Iran has provided Russia mainly with the Shahed-136, though it has also given it the slightly smaller Shahed-131. Both iterations of the drone only go one way and explode when they reach the intended target, while operators' inability to communicate with the UAV once it's in the air makes using electronic warfare to disrupt it much harder. The Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 also do not need a runway to take off, making them much easier to launch, and some of the components within the drone are commercially available.
"We have watched as these systems have migrated from the Middle East into Eastern Europe. This represents Tehran’s willingness to sell weapons," Carter explained. "This is another example of Russia and Iran attempting to alter the traditional world order to their benefit as we continue this phase of strategic competition. By arming Russia, Tehran has clearly signaled they are not a neutral actor in the Ukrainian conflict."
The DIA has confirmed that Russia has used Iranian drones in Ukraine by comparing the remnants of ones recovered from the battlefield to one found in Iraq after an attack the Iranians claimed they were behind. The DIA analyst removed the navigation panel from the drone found in Ukraine and placed it on the same place on the drone found in Iraq, while both had the same honeycomb interior, in addition to having identical wing stabilizers.
The simplistic drones Iran has provided to Russia don't make up the entirety of their arsenal, however, even though much of it remains contained to the Middle East, including more advanced systems. Tehran unveiled its new Mohajer-10, which is the upgraded version of the Mohajer-6 drone and can carry a 300-kilogram payload, double the capacity of its predecessor, Iranian state media reported earlier this week.
The drone supposedly has an operational range of 1,240 miles and can fly for up to 24 hours, per state media. Tal Beeri, the research director at the Alma Center, which is a research center in Israel dedicated to understanding the national security situation, recently approached the news with skepticism, noting, "The Iranians are information warfare experts. It is well-known that the Iranians have a propensity to assign multiple names to the same existing weapon: occasionally they reveal weapons that are ostensibly new (missiles / UAVs, etc.), but in reality, they are existing weapons that were previously known by a different name."
"It is conceivable that this is simply a new name or version of a well-known UAV (Shahed 129, Shahed 149, or 'Gaza'). Even if it is a new UAV, based on the available data (assuming they are accurate), we do not identify any unique characteristics or capabilities that increase the current threat posed by the Iranian UAV Army," Beeri recently wrote.
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The Alma Center has revealed that Iran has provided various drones to a number of its proxies in the region, including to Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon, to Shi’ite militias and Hezbollah in Syria, to Shi’ite militias in Iraq, to Houthis in Yemen, and to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
"All Iranian proxies use UAVs. For example, Hezbollah has between 2,000 and 4,000 UAVs of all types. Both Iranians and self-made. The working assumption is that the Iranians have handed over advanced UAVs to Hezbollah," Beeri told the Washington Examiner.