Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought issued a stark warning Wednesday during a House Appropriations Committee hearing, saying the United States could face a recession and steep tax hikes if President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” fails to pass.
“I think we’ll have a recession,” Vought said during testimony on the administration’s fiscal 2026 budget request. “Economic storm clouds will be very dark. I think we’ll have a 60% tax increase on the American people.”
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WATCH: @russvought on what he thinks will happen if the One Big Beautiful Bill doesn't pass:
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 4, 2025
"I think we'll have a recession… economic storm clouds will be very dark. I think we'll have a 60% tax increase on the American people… there's $1.7T in mandatory savers on the… pic.twitter.com/XSiHtCb9Jo
Vought defended the bill as critical to avoiding economic instability, citing $1.7 trillion in proposed “mandatory savers” aimed at overhauling entitlements and reducing long-term deficits. He compared the bill’s approach to the 1997 welfare reforms signed by President Bill Clinton, emphasizing that the current proposal includes work requirements and structural changes rather than arbitrary cuts.
“We’ve been unfairly criticized for the reconciliation bill,” he said. “There’s $1.7 trillion in mandatory savers. … We’re using the same model that Bill Clinton signed into law, and we think it will have incredible impact,” adding that it will give “people dignity of work.”
The hearing came one day after the White House requested a $9.4 billion cut in foreign aid and funding for public broadcasters — the first step in enacting the recommendations of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Senate Republicans are racing to pass the bill by July 4, with Trump working behind the scenes to rally support. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is leading negotiations to secure enough votes in the upper chamber.
However, the path forward hit some turbulence after Elon Musk slammed the bill as a “disgusting abomination” on X and called on voters to oust any lawmakers who support it.
“This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination,” Musk posted on Tuesday. “Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong.”
Musk repeated the criticism on Wednesday, demanding a new bill that doesn’t “massively grow the deficit and increase the debt ceiling by $5 TRILLION.”
Still, Vought made clear that failure to pass the legislation would be economically catastrophic.
“We have to get back to what we did in 1997,” he said, stressing long-term reform. “We’re not going to be ashamed by that, but we do need to explain ourselves to those being impacted by the watchdogs in this town that honestly don’t have an incentive to get a bill done and frankly, they are inaccurate.”
The Senate is expected to take up the bill in the coming weeks, as debate intensifies over its sweeping fiscal and policy implications.