Former President Donald Trump was out this week doing what he does best — tossing MAGA hats into a crowd, handing bottles of water to locals near the Ohio toxic train wreck, and charming supporters with banter about how he knows the McDonald’s menu better than anyone else. He has the common touch.
It contrasted starkly with President Joe Biden’s distant monitoring of the disaster and with the hapless Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. But there’s a silver lining for Biden in Trump’s strong week and polling gains. After all, he’d love to find himself running again in 2024 against the foe he vanquished two years ago. Trump may be the only Republican heavyweight who wouldn’t beat Biden. So, the incumbent and his handlers won’t see it as all bad news that the orange man is enjoying some limelight.
It’s Trump’s GOP rivals who are gnashing their teeth. Gov. Ron DeSantis might be more concerned than anyone, as he is still on the fence about running and his poll numbers are slipping as the afterglow fades from his 19-point landslide election win last November.
The Florida governor is spending three late February days with donors in Palm Beach, a gathering that smells strongly like preparation for a presidential campaign. And DeSantis may be recalibrating how long he should wait — is it still the end of the state legislative session in May? — before pulling the trigger.
Donors are holding back, conserving their cash to see what he does. This suggests that they, like 54% of Republican voters, would prefer someone other than Trump as the GOP nominee. But they won’t wait forever.
Donor hesitancy has limited Trump’s ability to raise campaign funds. But if the money men see him successfully retail politicking week after week, the spigot will start turning open. For as long as DeSantis stays out of the fight, Trump can define him. Every insult or implied contrast will go more or less unanswered. DeSantis looked good not responding to Trump’s puerile jabs — the former president continues to mock him as Ron DeSanctimonious — but the time will come soon when staying above the fray starts to look like being scared.
It was fine and well for DeSantis to make headlines by flying illegal immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the belly of the blue beast. But that was when no one was formally running for the White House. We’ve moved into a different phase.
Now three Republicans have entered the field: first Trump, champion of the populist wing; former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, representing the pre-Tea Party caucus; and Vivek Ramaswamy, 2024’s Andrew Yang.
DeSantis could scoop up supporters from all three of those camps. If he decided not to run, others would leap into the vacuum. But if he got in now, they’re more likely to stay out for good, and the GOP primary could become a two-horse race — him against Trump. (Sticking with the terminology of the track, Haley and Ramaswamy probably wouldn’t show.)
If a week is a long time in politics, three months (till Florida has finished legislating) is an eternity. The calculus for DeSantis is changing fast.