


Retailers are worried about the impact that President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy will have on their supply for the holiday season.
Toy suppliers, children’s shops, and similar retailers have paused orders for the winter holidays as companies cannot predict whether Trump’s 145% tariff on China will remain, increase, or go away. The production of goods for the Christmas holiday are typically fully ongoing at this point in the year, but the tariffs have caused a price increase for many retailers.
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“We have a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers, told the New York Times. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”
A survey from the Toy Association of 410 toy manufacturers with annual sales of less than $100 million found that more than 60% of those manufacturers said they canceled orders. Around 50% said their companies would go out of business within weeks or months if the tariffs stayed in place.
It typically takes four to five months to manufacture, package, and ship products from China to the United States. Chinese factories produce 80% of all toys sold in the U.S., and they produce 90% of all Christmas goods sold in the U.S.
The worry comes as container shipments from China to the U.S. have plummeted since Trump enacted “reciprocal tariffs” earlier this month.
Major ports on the West Coast in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, have reported a decline in shipping arrivals. The number of freight shipments leaving China en route to Southern California for the week ending Saturday declined 29% in a week-over-week analysis, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships.
While presidents typically tell people to make more with less during times of war or depression, Trump suggested that, due to his tariff policy, children could be better off with fewer toys this holiday season.
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more,” Trump said Wednesday.
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It appears Trump’s China tariffs are mostly impacting smaller businesses. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told reporters earlier this month that “there will be a Christmas, and people will celebrate Christmas, and they will buy items, and we will sell them those items.”
“If there are higher price points, and you want to rethink its quantity, maybe that makes sense,” McMillon said.