Senate Republicans mounted an aggressive primary intervention strategy to recruit strong candidates to improve their chances of taking back the majority next year, but not everything is going according to plan.
Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) are widely expected to enter their state’s respective Senate races in the coming months, creating new hurdles for Republican leaders as they try to chart a winning strategy without inflaming disaffected conservatives.
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Earlier this year, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, under the new leadership of Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), made it clear that the committee is more willing to take sides in Republican primaries, a departure from its policy in the 2022 cycle.
The shift reflected a widespread sense within the Republican conference that its roster of inexperienced and controversial candidates last cycle was at least partially responsible for the party’s failure to take control of the Senate.
Senate Republican leadership worked to recruit candidates like Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), who is currently the front-runner in the race to take on or replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). GOP also landed a major victory in recruiting former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy into the Montana Senate race in June to challenge vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).
Additionally, the NRSC under Daines has focused on boosting its preferred candidates. The committee has now endorsed four candidates total, including Sam Brown in Nevada and Jim Banks in Indiana, a strategy the party hasn’t deployed since 2014 after poor results in elections in 2010 and 2012.
The committee does appear to be staying out of races in Ohio, where there are several qualified Republican candidates vying to take on incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), in a state Republicans see as a prime pickup opportunity.
But, their carefully constructed plans could be thrown off in several critical states. Rosendale, one of the most conservative House members, is still mulling a second run for Senate against Tester after failing to unseat the Montana Democrat in 2018. Rosendale had previously been backed by the Club for Growth, a conservative political organization that has been a major player in Republican primaries in recent election cycles, but recently, the group indicated they would not be backing him.
There are some fears that Rosendale could win the primary but could suffer another general election loss to Tester.
“After last cycle, there’s evidence that we’ve got to get the electable candidates on the field,” said Sen. John Thune (R-SD) ahead of the August recess. “It would be nice if we could clear the field there.”
Justice, the popular two-term governor in West Virginia, must also face a Republican primary against conservative firebrand Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who is backed by the Club for Growth. So far, Justice remains the front-runner according to recent polling, but if Mooney were to gain momentum, it could force Senate Republicans to spend money in a race they think they could win easily with Justice as the nominee in the red-leaning state.
“Republicans who can’t win general elections need to stay out of these Senate races, especially the ones in states that are so critical to taking over the majority, like Montana and West Virginia,” said a Republican operative involved in Senate races who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We don’t need to be investing any more resources and time into states to win primaries and then again to win the general. It’s just a waste of time and effort.”
Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee communications director and a GOP strategist, admits the ideal scenario would be for the strongest candidate not to face a Republican primary challenge, but he doesn’t believe a close primary damages the party’s chances of winning in the general election.
“Sure, in an ideal world, you’d like a very well-financed candidate with no primary. But, then there’s also the real world, and having a primary doesn’t mean that it’s tougher to win in November,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “Sometimes these candidates need to go through a primary to learn how to be a strong candidate.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are watching closely from the sidelines, eager to see how messy primaries could divide the GOP well into the summer of next year.
“Yes, Democrats have at-risk seats in some purple and even very red states, but those candidates don’t have primaries, so they can concentrate solely on the general election,” Jon Reinish, a prominent Democratic strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “Republicans in purple and swing states and even in these red states, have some extremely tough primaries to navigate. That puts front and center some of the most troublesome, polarizing, radicalized voices, so that’s a huge problem for Republicans as they look to reclaim the Senate.”
Republicans are in a good spot ahead of the 2024 races, with less than half as many seats to defend as Democrats. But many are cautious after last year’s election showed how some candidates could still lose races that seemed to be stacked in their favor. The Arizona Senate race is becoming the latest cautionary tale for many Republicans concerned about repeating the mistakes of last cycle.
“Kari Lake guarantees Republicans of losing again. Her rhetoric is wrapped up in anger and willingness to fight, and it’s clear she doesn’t have a coherent strategy to actually win,” Heye said.
Lake is preparing to launch her Senate campaign this fall, setting up a potential three-way race with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). Lake was among one of the most vocal of last year’s Republican candidates who promoted former President Donald Trump’s claims to have won the 2020 election. After narrowly losing her bid for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs, she continues to challenge the outcome in state court, claiming widespread irregularities.
The only Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, announced his candidacy in April but is widely considered an underdog if Lake runs.
“If you’re the NRSC or any other group, there’s nothing they can do to prevent her from getting in,” said Brian Walsh, a veteran Republican strategist. “The governor’s race wasn’t stolen from her; she lost it — and she lost it because she alienated swing voters and moderate Republicans.”
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Most GOP operatives emphasize the pathway to reclaim the Senate majority will run through West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. But others say the party shouldn’t get complacent, especially with other races on the map that could be in play.
“I think if you’re Republicans, obviously, you want to win as many seats as possible. I think they could win the majority back without Arizona, but obviously, it would be disappointing to leave that race on the map,” Walsh said. “If Kari Lake gets into that race, she effectively hands that seat to the Democrats, just like she handed the governor’s race to the Democrats.”