The chaos within the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden‘s viability as a candidate has congressional Republicans believing there is a door open for the GOP to flip House seats that he won easily in 2020, including those in districts that he won by double digits.
With congressional Democrats and big donors sounding the alarm that Biden is not only not up to another four-year term but could also cause significant damage to down-ballot, swing district races, GOP fundraising leaders see an opportunity for Republicans to widen their margin in the House and take back the Senate.
“If it’s a D+3, we already got you,” National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) said in an interview with Punchbowl News, referring to seats Biden won by 3 points in 2020. “We’re looking at D+11 and plus. … We’ve seen numbers all cycle that show we can win [in] a number of places like that.”
With Democrats splintering over their own presumptive nominee, battleground states and swing districts are already paying the price. The Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” and Minnesota and New Hampshire from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.” Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District also shifted from “likely” to “lean” Democrat.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also found on July 3 that Minnesota and Michigan’s Electoral College ratings shifted, the second time in less than a month that the outlet downgraded Democrats.
Democrats initially saw a path to retaking the House at the start of the cycle because 17 House Republicans are up for reelection in districts that Biden won in 2020. With Biden at the top of the ticket, Democrats saw those seats as easy pickups.
But Hudson said he thinks those districts will not be as winnable as Democrats thought, calling Biden the “most unpopular president in American history.”
“The American people have connected the dots that they are less prosperous and less safe because of [Biden’s] policies,” Hudson said.
Republicans have aimed high before, only to fall significantly short of their goals. In 2022, GOP leaders expected a “red wave” in the midterm elections but came out the other end with a razor-thin majority in the House and losses in multiple Senate races thanks to lackluster hard-line conservative candidates.
Still, Republicans may have a better chance this time around due to the fracturing among Democrats over Biden’s candidacy. So far, nearly 20 congressional Democrats have called on him to withdraw as the nominee after a poor debate performance and verbal slip-ups, both privately and publicly, that have supporters worried he cannot beat former President Donald Trump in another presidential election.
With Trump naming Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate, the Republican conference is unifying strongly behind its ticket — a stark contrast to the Democrats.
“Joe Biden and extreme House Democrats wrecked the country, and their record is an anchor around the necks of their electoral hopes,” NRCC National press secretary Will Reinert said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “It’s giving Republicans the opportunity to expand the map, which is why so many vulnerable Democrats attempted to rewrite history by throwing Biden off the Presidential ticket.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) told Punchbowl News that a Trump-Vance ticket “helps Republicans in our Senate battlegrounds,” while Senate Democrats consider a campaign visit from Biden their “worst nightmare.”
On the Democratic side, leaders have dismissed concerns that down-ballot races are in peril with Biden as the nominee. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said “no” when asked if he is worried about Biden being a liability for the party’s most vulnerable members, arguing that Democrats will win back the House if they can “clearly communicate” their agenda.
However, Politico reported that battleground House Democrats who are concerned a ticket with Biden at the top would backfire on down-ballot races are reportedly confiding in Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). The former speaker of the House set off a storm last week when she said it was Biden’s decision on whether to stay in the race, insinuating that despite the president’s many remarks that he would see the campaign through, his choice was not yet finalized.
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Hudson said his only concern is that Democrats may outspend the GOP. House Democrats’ campaign arm announced on Wednesday that it raised $44 million in the second quarter, including $19.7 million in June, outraising the NRCC by $7 million in the second quarter and $5.4 million in June.
“They’re running a campaign that says, ‘Yes, you’re less safe, less prosperous, but they’re scary,’” Hudson said of his Democratic colleagues. “So the only way that that could work is if they’re going to have money to make us look scarier.”