The state of Virginia hasn’t backed a GOP candidate for president since George W. Bush in 2004, but that isn’t stopping Republicans from pointing out what they believe are promising signs that the state could be in play this general election.
Recent polling has shown former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is cutting into President Joe Biden’s lead in the state. That’s on top of the fact the state has a popular Republican governor and a state legislature that is only narrowly controlled by Democrats.
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According to a Roanoke College poll conducted in mid-May, Biden and Trump are tied in Virginia, a dramatic turn in a state that went blue by 10 points in 2020. In addition, a Fox News Voter Analysis poll of registered voters also found Biden tied with Trump, which was conducted from June 1-4.
“I’d rather be the Trump campaign rather than the Biden campaign right now,” Zack Roday, a Republican strategist in Virginia who previously worked on Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) campaign, said. “If the polls hold in September and October, there will be spending here and it will be a problem for Democrats to have to spend in order to hold the Commonwealth.”
Republicans like Roday believe if Virginia is on the table for Trump, then Biden’s shot at reelection is in jeopardy in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
“If they have to compete in Virginia, then this thing is over,” Roday explained. “I don’t know if I would classify [Virginia] as in play or as a battleground, but it’s right there. What it signifies is a bad trend for the president and a good trend for President Trump.”
This past week, Youngkin met with Trump to discuss the potential of turning the state red, specifically talking about parts of the state where Youngkin won in 2021, according to a source with knowledge of the meeting. While much of the state remains a Democratic stronghold, including the major population centers of Arlington and Alexandria, some believe Virginia Beach and Stafford and the western part of Fairfax County could be places Republicans could be viable.
“I’m in the camp of if it’s ever going to happen — this could be our year, solely because of Biden’s low approval numbers,” Brian Kirwin, a Republican operative in the state, said.
“Honestly, every four years, someone says Virginia is in play right up until Election Day,” he explained. “But this is a referendum on Biden, as most incumbent elections are, and people are going to vote according to his performance.”
Virginia will hold its primary election for Democrats and Republicans on Tuesday, which could give clues about what the state may look like come November. This also comes as Biden and former President Bill Clinton plan to team up for a mega fundraiser hosted by former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe in his home in McLean, Virginia, on the very same day.
Kyle Kondik, elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said not to read too much into the fundraiser occurring in the commonwealth since candidates often go where the donors are located.
“I do still think Biden will do better in Virginia than he does nationally — that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Trump to win the state, but if it’s truly competitive down the stretch, it would likely be a sign of broader erosion for Democrats,” Kondik explained. “The key states in the Electoral College remain Biden’s six-closest wins from 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
Many Democrats are skeptical Trump could carry Virginia. While some are acknowledging the polling numbers don’t look great, the state has rejected Republicans in the past every time Trump has been on the ballot.
“I just don’t see how the demographics could be there for Trump in Virginia,” a Democratic strategist based in the state said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Every time Trump has been on the ballot in the state, Democrats have won. I just don’t see that changing, no matter how unpopular Biden is.”
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While there is still time for Biden to improve his approval rating numbers, Kirwin emphasizes that early voting in Virginia begins in September for the general election.
“The drama starts in September because Virginians start voting 45 days before the November election,” Kirwin said. “It could be key because it means Biden has a shorter timeline to turn things around.”