After a disappointing performance by Republicans in the midterm election cycle, party members are seeking ways to implement a more aggressive strategy to take control of the Senate in 2024.
Republicans experienced a handful of losses in the 2022 midterm elections, costing the GOP a Senate majority it was initially predicted to win. The lackluster performance was largely due to many Republican groups taking a “hands-off” approach, leading to a candidate quality problem that many party members say contributed to their losses.
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Now, groups such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund are hoping to avoid repeating history by taking on a more aggressive strategy — particularly in the primary cycle.
During the midterm election cycle, the NRSC declined to get involved in GOP primaries, leaving the GOP with more divisive candidates in key swing states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The SLF also had limited involvement, only spending through outside groups during the primary cycle.
Republicans have already begun singing a different tune, with the NRSC jumping to get involved with Rep. Jim Banks’s (R-IN) run to replace Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN), who is not seeking reelection. The move indicates that Republicans are looking to avoid divisive primaries, elevating strong candidates to help the party take control of the Senate in 2024.
However, there are a handful of races in key pickup states that could pose differing preferred candidates among GOP groups. At least 11 Republicans who ran unsuccessful campaigns in 2022 are considering a Senate run in 2024.
Here are the top three states that could tank Republican chances of taking back the Senate if competitive primaries emerge:
West Virginia
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the 2024 cycle, giving Republicans a key pickup opportunity to flip his seat in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020.
No Republican has thrown their hat in the ring to challenge Manchin, but the SLF is already staking out Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) as its top choice. Justice is the GOP’s strongest candidate to take on Manchin, with internal polling from the SLF showing the two-term governor defeating the incumbent senator by 10 percentage points.
However, the prominent Club for Growth has indicated it would oppose Justice’s candidacy. Instead, the group is likely to support Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV).
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is also considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, as he is running in a state that Trump won by 16.4 percentage points in 2020.
The NRSC has already begun targeting Tester, launching a series of attack ads calling on the Montana Democrat either to “retire or get fired.” Republicans have not yet agreed on who would be the best candidate to challenge Tester, with several names being tossed around as possible options.
Some of the top contenders include Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who lost to Tester in 2018, and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), who resigned as Trump’s interior secretary in 2019 amid an ethics scandal.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has emerged as a key pickup state for Republicans, particularly after Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) won the state last year, handing Democrats the Senate majority.
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Both the NRSC and SLF have tapped David McCormick as their preferred candidate, but it’s unclear whether the Club for Growth is considering a more conservative challenger. McCormick previously ran for Senate in the midterm elections, but he was defeated by Dr. Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary — a loss that many Republicans say cost them the seat.
Republicans could face a divisive primary should former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano decide to run, as his candidacy is likely to split voters. Mastriano ran for governor in the 2022 midterm elections but was defeated by Democrat Josh Shapiro.