Republicans are coalescing around their candidate of choice to challenge Sen. Jon Tester's (D-MT) bid for a fourth term well ahead of next year's contest.
Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL who entered the 2024 GOP primary in late June, has the backing of Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT), Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) in his capacity as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. All three have urged Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who is openly mulling whether to throw his hat in the ring, to sit this cycle out in hopes of preventing a contentious primary.
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Daines and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have spent this year recruiting the most electable candidates in must-win swing states to retake the majority next year. Both men have said their path to victory relies on wins in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, four states with Democratic incumbents up for reelection.
Democrats currently only control the Senate by a 51-49 margin, meaning Republicans only need to net two seats to win back control.
Tester's decision to run for a fourth term was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state former President Donald Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. Senate GOP leadership views the seat as within their reach given how red the state is and worries a crowded primary contest would weaken their candidate in the general election.
Daines spent months privately lobbying Sheehy to get in the race, going as far as to publicly dissuade Rosendale from getting in the race after the retired Navy SEAL announced his candidacy. He told Politico in late June that he was urging Rosendale to stay in the House "to build seniority ... and help Republicans hold their majority."
Asked about reports that it is imperative to him personally to keep Rosendale out of the race in an interview last month, Daines replied the two had been having “honest and productive” conversations. As for whether Rosendale will stay out of the race, Daines said, “That will be Matt’s decision. I honestly don’t know on that. But if we can avoid a contested primary, that’d be the best thing to do.”
Rosendale, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, had the support of the Club for Growth in his unsuccessful 2018 bid against Tester. Club for Growth President David McIntosh had said earlier this year that the club would likely support his campaign for a 2024 rematch, though he walked that back after Sheehy launched his bid.
Reports have also surfaced in the last month that Trump has told Rosendale he won’t endorse him over Sheehy in that race, making his path to the GOP nomination that much more challenging.
Daines’s work to unseat Tester places the Montana senators, who have long had a frosty relationship, in an awkward position while serving in a chamber known for its collegiality, especially between same-state members.
While the two Montanans appear to work together, as evidenced by the joint press releases their offices put out, the two are entering what will be an undeniably uncomfortable period as Republicans attempt to oust the three-term Democrat from his seat.
The NRSC chairman said in June that he believed Tester was entering the 2024 race at the most vulnerable point in his political career, pointing to the red state’s “increasing shift of the Republican side.”
“The last Senate race and John Tester was in, he won that race by 18,000 votes. We've seen well more than that in new voters coming to Montana,” Daines said, noting that those were “probably center-right voters.”
Tester hasn't said if he'd prefer to face Sheehy or Rosendale, who he demonized as "Maryland Matt," a real estate developer from the Old Line State who falsely claimed to be a rancher, during their 2018 contest.
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On Tester’s side of the aisle, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has thus far steered clear of crowded primaries for must-win general election races, especially in races without incumbents.
The organization is instead focused on allocating resources to vulnerable incumbents such as Tester. A DSCC official confirmed to the Washington Examiner last month that the party’s Senate campaign arm would be heavily invested in the reelection fights for Tester and Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).