Republican operatives in the Sunshine State fear a congressional special election race in a deep-red district could be closer than expected, which could inadvertently be seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s record ahead of the midterm elections in 2026.
Josh Weil, a Democratic school teacher, has raised more than $10 million in the race compared to Republican state Sen. Randy Fine, who has less than $1 million in campaign cash.
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In addition, officials have raised concerns that Democrats have been running slightly ahead of Republicans according to early voting data in a district composed of 49% Republicans and 25.5% Democrats, according to the Florida Division of Elections website.
Weil and Fine are facing off in the special election on April 1 to replace former Republican Rep. Michael Waltz, who resigned from his seat in January when he was tapped by Trump to become the U.S. national security adviser.
“On the early days of early voting, it was alarming to us, because the first day, we didn’t see a very big turnout. And so a small turnout can obviously lead to very inopportune outcomes,” said Vic Baker, a committee member for the Volusia County GOP.
Baker said he believes Weil’s massive cash infusion has made a difference specifically when it comes to media exposure and has the potential to make the race more competitive than expected.
“They have saturated the airwaves. They’ve put signs up everywhere. They took out full-page ads in newspapers. They have left no inch of turf untouched. In terms of the campaign, it’s been an absolute blitzkrieg from that side,” he said, speaking with the Washington Examiner. “Obviously, that set off alarm bells because normally you know — Mike Waltz and Trump handily won this district.”
Waltz won by more than 30 points in November 2024 and Trump beat then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 30 points in the same district. However, a recent poll from St. Pete Polls showed the race within the poll’s margin of error, with Fine ahead by 48% of the vote, while Weil received 44%. The poll of 403 likely voters was conducted on March 22 with a 4.9% margin of error.
Baker expressed skepticism about the poll, questioning the reliability due to the small sample size and margin of error. He suggested that Republicans would ultimately support their candidate and downplayed Weil’s chances, despite his significant fundraising advantage.
“I would say that it would be a political earthquake if a Republican lost a congressional race in this district, and I don’t think that we’re going to see a political earthquake next Tuesday,” he said.
Trump has attempted to get the momentum moving in Fine’s direction, posting his support for the Republican again on Truth Social. Elon Musk’s super PAC is pouring last-minute resources into the race, spending roughly $10,200 in texting services, according to a federal campaign finance report filed on Monday. House Republicans in recent days have been calling donors to help fill in the gaps, according to three sources with knowledge.
The race is also notable due to Fine’s fraught relationship with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Fine notoriously turned on DeSantis during the 2024 GOP primary and flipped his endorsement to Trump after saying the governor hadn’t done enough to address antisemitism in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
DeSantis, who represented the same district from 2013 to 2018, said on Tuesday he expects Fine to underperform.
“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 and what the president won it by in November,” DeSantis said Tuesday. “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race.”
“[Fine] has long been a thorn in DeSantis’s side, and Ron is more than happy to, you know, you know, stick the shiv in a little deeper and twist the knife,” said a Florida Republican operative, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Knowing Ron in the way that he operates, he would be more than happy if Randy lost. He won’t say that publicly.”
“[DeSantis] is not going out of his way to help him, that’s for sure,” the person added.
Bryan Piligra, Fine’s campaign spokesman, emphasizes Fine is fully committed to the race and is determined to defeat his opponent.
“Randy Fine is taking nothing for granted and is personally invested in this race to ensure we stop socialist Josh Weil from stealing this seat and sabotaging President Trump’s agenda,” Piligra said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. “Voters across the 6th District know Randy will fight unapologetically alongside President Trump to secure our borders, lower taxes, and protect Social Security for all Floridians.”
Trump allies in the state believe Fine will ultimately win the race but have concerns that a closer race could be seen as an indicator of how the electorate is feeling.
“Randy Fine is going to win the race. It’s just going to be much closer than a lot of people anticipate,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist.
O’Connell said Republicans need to draw enough attention to the race in the final stretch in an effort to prevent Democrats from pushing a broader narrative that they are competitive even in Republican strongholds as a result of what they perceive as widespread anger at Trump and Republicans.
“The Republicans never want to give the Democrats right now, as they are lost in the wilderness, an ounce of oxygen,” O’Connell said.
Another special election, in the state’s 1st Congressional District, will also occur on April 1 to fill the vacancy left by former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz when he resigned from Congress late last year. Democratic candidate Gay Valimont managed to bring in nearly $6.4 million from Jan. 9 to March 12, surpassing Republican Jimmy Patronis’s $1.1 million during the same period. Concerns about Patronis are not as prevalent as those surrounding Fine.
Some Democrats are pointing to a significant upset victory in a Republican-leaning state Senate race in Pennsylvania as a signal that the tide could be turning against Trump in his adopted home state of Florida.
Democrat James Malone narrowly defeated Republican Josh Parsons by less than 1 percentage point in the race for Pennsylvania’s state Senate District 36 on Tuesday, narrowing the GOP’s majority in the chamber to a 27-23 advantage. The district had been held by a Republican and was won by President Donald Trump last November in the presidential election with 57% of the vote.
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“We look at that PA race and we think it signals that anything can happen,” a national Democratic operative said. “We’re aware those Florida races are a major uphill climb, there’s no doubt about it, but there are numerous signs that the American electorate is not pleased with what they are seeing in the White House.”
“If we are able to close the gaps and show this was a tighter-than-expected result, it’s off to the races for 2026,” the person said.