Like the Democrats they dethroned, House Republicans have big dreams but a small majority. They would like to cut spending, eliminate inflationary fiscal policies, confront China, secure the border, and hold the executive branch accountable without willing partners in charge of the White House or the Senate.
Some go so far as to see a historic opportunity for entitlement reform, even as President Joe Biden centers his likely reelection campaign around the need to defend Social Security and Medicare from Republican cuts.
"When Republicans only control one half of one of the three branches of the federal government, they are limited in what they can do from a lawmaking standpoint because it is a numbers game, and they simply don’t have the numbers to pass sweeping legislation into law,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “But that doesn’t mean House Republicans don’t have significant power to change the conversation and direction of policy in Washington, D.C., and across the country, if they can maintain a strategic legislative focus and sound communications discipline.”
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One thing Republicans can do is stop the more partisan elements of the Biden agenda cold. Tax and spending measures must originate in the House, according to the Constitution. Barring massive defections by the more centrist GOP lawmakers representing the most Biden-friendly districts, these bills won’t even make it to the House floor. Reconciliation, the budgetary promise by which the Democrats passed two of Biden’s biggest spending bills, is a nonstarter.
Legislation such as Build Back Better or the shrunken version found in the Inflation Reduction Act won’t make it out of the House. If they somehow did, they would be subject to filibuster in the Senate. The 49 Republican senators may be one fewer than last year, but that is more than enough to blow up bills under a 60-vote threshold.
Republicans argued on the campaign trail that this type of spending was Biden’s biggest contribution to inflation, which spiked to a 41-year high before the Federal Reserve stepped in with an aggressive blitz of interest rate hikes. They will be able to stop it.
Democrats countered with concerns about abortion and Roe v. Wade, which was overturned by a conservative-dominated Supreme Court in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision a few months before the midterm elections. Republicans will similarly be able to thwart Democratic efforts to codify, or go beyond, Roe.
In terms of a positive legislative agenda, House Republicans will have to decide between trying to find measures Biden could sign into law and messaging bills that will put their Democratic opponents on the record ahead of the next elections.
“Legislation that tackles inflation, strengthening the economy, and fiscal sanity are winners, so long as Republicans stay out of the Democrats’ Medicare and Social Security traps,” O’Connell told the Washington Examiner. “Same goes for legislation concerning border security, crime, the Chinese Communist Party, domestic energy security, and government accountability. These are all issues that appeal to Main Street, including independents.”
That’s precisely the trap Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hope to set in the debt ceiling fight. House Republicans hope to win some spending concessions in exchange for an increase in the federal debt limit. Biden wants a clean debt ceiling hike with no conditions, saying Republicans are willing to default and tank the economy to force Social Security and Medicare cuts.
Republicans did win some spending concessions, with threatened enforcement through sequestration, in 2011 under former President Barack Obama. The circumstances were similar: a Republican House, a Democratic Senate, and a Democrat in the White House. So House conservatives see that as the model.
Biden was involved in those debt ceiling negotiations over a decade ago when he was vice president. No deal was struck before a credit rating downgrade took place. The stalemate probably helped Obama get reelected. And Biden has to wonder if House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who took 15 ballots to get elected, really speaks for his conference.
“The American people want to see Washington, D.C., stop with the utter dysfunction that has plagued the city for so long,” Republican strategist Jon Gilmore said. “We need to have real conversations about spending, debt, and putting forward meaningful policies to enact real change. I have confidence in the speaker and his leadership team, and we are all rooting for their success.”
Dysfunction is exactly what Democrats want swing voters to see in McCarthy’s House, exploiting tensions among the various Republican factions.
Oversight of the Biden administration is another sure bet from House Republicans. They now control the committees and have subpoena power. Presidential son Hunter Biden and retired Biden administration chief COVID-19 adviser Anthony Fauci, as well as current officials, are going to be on the receiving end.
Committee hearings don’t have the same bipartisan credibility as they did decades ago. Grilling Attorney General Merrick Garland could be seen as a substitute for governing, pleasing only the base. But some voters also want answers on the border, the FBI, and Afghanistan. Republicans will at least be in a better position to ask the questions.
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With a divided government, most of the next two years will really be about why Democrats or Republicans should be returned to full control. Each will be trying to make the argument that their candidates should be the next president and congressional majority.
“How do we measure GOP House success? Simple,” O’Connell said. “Do Republicans win control of the White House and all of Congress in 2024? If they do, then they have been successful."