Republicans are “cautiously optimistic” that former President Donald Trump will not be convicted in his hush money case, even as they prepare to blame partisan bias if the jury does return a guilty verdict.
Trump and his allies in Congress have cast doubt on whether he can get a fair trial in a deep-blue area such as Manhattan. Republicans routinely attack the prosecutor and judge as “corrupt” but have largely refrained from attempting to discredit the jury itself.
That could change as soon as this week, when jurors will decide whether Trump is guilty of falsifying business records in connection with a $130,000 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, but for now, Republicans are holding out hope Trump will be spared a sentence.
“It’s New York City. That’s all I can say. It’s Manhattan,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said of the jury pool. “I don’t have high expectations, but I do think there’s got to be enough of them that have a conscience and some integrity.”
The note of optimism is due, in part, to the perceived lack of credibility of Michael Cohen, the former Trump “fixer” and witness who arranged the hush money payment. His admission that he previously stole from Trump, plus his prior conviction for lying to Congress, will be reiterated by the defense in closing arguments that begin on Tuesday.
It also has to do with the possibility that jurors will be divided over whether the prosecution proved its case beyond a reasonable doubt. District Attorney Alvin Bragg has not only accused Trump of falsifying business records, a misdemeanor. He has also pursued a felony conviction by arguing that Trump, who denies the charges and the affair with Daniels, committed the crime ahead of the 2016 election as part of a larger criminal conspiracy.
The prosecution emphasizes that the charges against Trump do not hinge on the testimony of Cohen alone. That side has brought before the jury 20 witnesses and supporting documents to make its case.
However, if even one juror dissents, known as a hung jury, the judge will declare a mistrial.
“I would be willing to state with metaphysical certainty that Donald J. Trump is not going to be convicted in that trial,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) said. “I can see an acquittal. I can see a hung jury. But I can’t see a conviction under any circumstance.”
Not all congressional Republicans were so adamant in interviews with the Washington Examiner. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said it was “entirely possible we see a conviction.”
Most left the door open to a guilty verdict while expressing they were breathing easier after four weeks of testimony.
“I actually feel cautiously optimistic,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who visited the Manhattan courtroom two weeks ago.
Trump’s lawyers attempted to exclude anyone from the jury who might rule unfavorably. However, the 12 jurors who were eventually chosen represent the biggest wild card of the entire case.
The panel, made up of five women and seven men, were whittled from a pool of 200 possible jurors across three days of jury selection. Their names were kept private at the discretion of the judge, but the details that were provided to the public show a jury with a wide set of backgrounds.
Each said they could be fair and impartial in the case against Trump.
TRUMP TRIAL: HERE ARE THE 12 JURORS SEATED FOR HUSH MONEY CASE
A guilty verdict would feed into Republicans’ claims that Trump was tried in a “kangaroo court.” Cruz speculated that the Manhattan jury deciding the case “may well be quite partisan” in expressing his pessimism, while the former president appeared to violate his gag order at the outset of the trial by spreading the unfounded claim that liberals were lying to infiltrate the jury.
Yet a guilty verdict could also give Democrats a fresh rebuttal to that line of attack if a jury of Trump’s peers convict him.
“Clearly, it’s not a weaponized system of justice. Despite everything Trump says, it will make it even more difficult for him to make that argument,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said of a conviction.
The prosecution, one of four against Trump, has injected a degree of uncertainty and intrigue into the high-stakes rematch with President Joe Biden. However, lawmakers from both parties doubted it would sway the minds of voters much if Trump is convicted.
The former president is expected to appeal the conviction if he is found guilty, while any possible sentencing is not likely to include jail time.
“I think if he’s acquitted, it affirmatively helps him in a big way, but I don’t think a conviction has any effect,” Vance said of Trump.
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“No,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) said unequivocally when asked if a conviction would hurt Trump. “In fact, I’m sure they’ll fundraise off of that.”
“He’s begging to be put in jail and be made a martyr and everything,” Fetterman added. “It’s not going to have an impact. It’s going to be the same stark choice that it’s always been.”