Vice President Kamala Harris is now the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party after accumulating the necessary delegates in the two days since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. While her approval ratings are less than stellar, Republicans need to be careful not to underestimate her chances of winning in November.
After Biden’s historically disastrous debate performance last month, polls were showing that voters no longer believed he was fit for another four years. Biden had managed to make the election a referendum on himself rather than on former President Donald Trump. Now that he is out of the race, Democrats can focus on attacking Trump, if Harris allows it.
In one of the first polls conducted since Biden’s announcement, Harris is leading Trump by 2 points nationwide in a head-to-head, though they were tied just over a week ago. When third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included, Harris led Trump by 4 points. Moreover, 56% of voters say that Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” while less than half say the same about Trump. Harris is viewed favorably by 91% of Democratic voters, which is 11 points higher than Biden. In other words, Harris is a far stronger candidate than Biden was.
Another concern for Republicans is that Trump, theoretically, should still be riding a polling bump from the failed assassination attempt and last week’s Republican National Convention. His diminishing lead means that the honeymoon period since the first debate is over and Republicans cannot take any part of the election for granted. This also suggests that Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), was a gamble that may not pay off.
Another key factor is that, while Trump’s campaign support had recently increased, his favorability and unfavorability ratings have remained stagnant for years, further suggesting that he was merely seen as the least bad alternative to Biden. This is not to say, however, that Harris is in a much better place: She has even lower approval ratings than Trump. The difference is that Trump has been arguably the most prominent face in politics since 2016, while Harris could still be effectively reintroduced to many voters.
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Republicans cannot misjudge Harris, particularly because a Harris presidency would be far more radical than Biden’s has been. While it has recently looked like Republicans are heavily favored to win in November, this election has now entered uncharted territory.
The Democratic Party narrowly avoided the biggest mistake it could have made: nominating Biden. So Republicans need to avoid the biggest mistake they can make: acting like they have the front-runner.