2024 Republican primary candidates not named Donald Trump have been hoping the election's opening debate will help them make inroads in the race despite the former president's dominance.
But the debates have also placed pressure on some of the same candidates to drop out of contention as Trump consolidates his lead so a non-Trump contender can emerge.
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An increasing number of members of the GOP, such as party strategist Evan Siegfried, are imploring candidates who do not qualify for the Republican National Committee-sanctioned debates to suspend their campaigns.
"I mean, if you're a Francis Suarez and you don't make the stage, you have no justification," Siegfried told the Washington Examiner. "You should have by now been able to get enough support to qualify for the debates, and if you can't, you have no business running for president."
"There are several candidates who are running not for president but for a Cabinet position, a book deal, to be able to up their speaking fee, or even the vice presidency," he said.
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who himself declined to mount a campaign, made a similar argument in the New York Times on Monday, though his cutoff was the second debate, scheduled to be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on Sept. 27. To qualify for the second debate, candidates must have 3% support in two different national polls or 3% in one national poll and two polls from separate early primary or caucus states, in addition to 50,000 unique donors, with at least 200 donors from at least 20 states or territories.
“Anyone who is polling in the low single digits by Christmas must acknowledge that their efforts have fallen short,” Sununu wrote. “After the results from Iowa come in, it is paramount that the field must shrink, before the New Hampshire primary, to the top three or four.”
But even if candidates were to disband their campaigns, that does not mean there would be one opponent who could successfully challenge Trump, especially considering a CBS poll published last weekend that found the former president had 62% support.
"Even if there were a viable alternative, the highest ceiling for them is 38% in that poll, so that's a huge lead, even if there were just one other candidate every Republican was supporting," Siegfried, the strategist, said. "Chris Christie, he's getting single, low single digits, and he's qualified for the debate stage, but if you look at his unfavorables among Republicans nationally, they're really bad. They're in the 60% as well."
"A lot of these candidates know they're not going to win and, I mean, the nomination has always been Donald Trump's to lose," he added.
Nationally, Trump has an average of 56% support to Gov. Ron DeSantis's (R-FL) 15%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy's 7%, former Vice President Mike Pence's 4%, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Sen. Tim Scott's (R-SC) 3%, according to RealClearPolitics. Trump performs less well in Iowa and New Hampshire, with an average of 43% and 44%, respectively.
Many of the candidates' campaigns were premised on the idea that Trump's would implode because of his legal problems and they could appeal to Republicans through the debates. Now their strategies are predicated on the GOP and general election electorate's response to the former president appearing in court, though only the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis's trial in Georgia is likely to be televised. Trump is additionally poised to counterprogram the debate with an interview with Tucker Carlson and his surrender to Georgian authorities over Willis's Jan. 6 case by Aug. 25.
The good news for qualified candidates is that campaigns "rarely, if ever, die instantly" due to a debate, though "they can be set on the path to eventual extinction" based on their performance, according to presidential historian David Pietrusza, who cited then-New York Gov. Thomas E. Dewey and former Minnesota Gov. Harold E. Stassen in 1948, in addition to then-Sens. John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Hubert Humphrey in 1960.
"In 2016, of course, Chris Christie demolished Marco Rubio in the debates, and Donald Trump with his 'Low Energy Jeb' sneer pretty much sunk Jeb Bush," the historian said.
It was DeSantis's early struggles that encouraged more candidates to announce their own campaigns. The governor's aides have sought to counter high expectations by acknowledging he will be the target Wednesday during Fox News's two-hour debate, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, as he tries to "reboot" his bid.
"No one is entitled to this nomination, including Donald Trump," DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said. "You have to show up and earn it. Ron DeSantis is looking forward to being in Milwaukee Wednesday to share his vision for what he will do as president to reverse our decline and lead an American revival."
Scott, too, is playing the expectations game, given his favorable polling and favorability ratings, with one staffer dismissing the debate as a "make or break" moment for the senator, citing his preparation, message, fundraising, and campaign infrastructure.
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“Tim Scott will share his positive, conservative message on the debate stage in Milwaukee," Scott campaign spokeswoman Nicole Morales said. "This debate is another opportunity to connect with millions of voters across the country and show why Tim has faith in America and why he is the strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden.”
Ten candidates have qualified for the first debate: Trump, DeSantis, Pence, Haley, Scott, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Christie, Ramaswamy, and fellow businessman Perry Johnson. Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and conservative radio host Larry Elder have not qualified.