As Republican candidates vie for the 2024 nomination, some have begun to test the waters of criticizing former President Donald Trump to see just how far they can go without turning off voters.
Most candidates are hesitant to appear critical of the former president. Many would prefer not to address Trump at all, but they're all but forced to comment amid his mounting legal troubles.
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The only Republican presidential candidates to take strong stances against the current primary front-runner are those polling at 2% or less nationally. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson have all been willing to tackle the topic of Trump, the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and his mounting legal woes.
Christie, in particular, has even called out some of the more prominent GOP candidates, attacking them for refusing to condemn Trump.
Prompted to respond to Christie on Thursday, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said, "I'm not obsessively anti-Trump like he is. I talk about policies."
She isn't the only one leading with policy when it comes to Trump. In fact, several sources with knowledge of campaign strategy for some of the leading GOP candidates indicated that this is the only area in which they are willing to take on Trump.
One Republican strategist, though, suggests that there may not be a path to primary victory by only hitting Trump on policy — or using his policies against him at all, for that matter.
According to Republican political strategist and pollster Adam Geller, policy is a bad way to try and pick off Trump voters. He pointed to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), explaining, "To the extent that he's been critical of Trump, he's been critical of Trump on policy."
He characterized DeSantis as hoping to run to the political Right of Trump, hitting at the former president for not going far enough in certain areas. "These are silly arguments among Republican primary voters," Geller said. "Trump's job approval is sky high. So it feels as if it's a kind of a misguided attempt to somehow try to outflank Trump on the Right."
Geller added that the Florida governor has lost altitude in his attempt to be more Right-wing than Trump.
In terms of strategies, he advised that campaigns "go back to the drawing board."
"Perhaps they can look at some of the concerns that people have, even those who love Trump's policies," Geller suggested.
Despite Geller's warning, this is exactly the approach that Haley, DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy are taking. Former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) are similarly focusing on policy but have been prompted to address Trump on different fronts in the past.
Pence has been particularly critical of Trump's actions on Jan. 6, with which he is inextricably linked because of his role as vice president that day. Last month, without naming Trump, he said, "Anyone who puts themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the United States, and anyone who asks someone else to put them over the Constitution should never be president of the United States again.”
Scott, avoiding criticism of the former president regarding the Capitol riot and his current legal trouble, hopes his optimistic message sets him apart from the competition, including from Trump.
Joining Piers Morgan on Fox News Tonight earlier this month, Scott was asked how he's planning on knocking out Trump. The senator pointed to his "optimistic, positive message anchored in conservatism with a backbone," which he said is "not only resonating, it is actually increasing the enthusiasm we're experiencing."
However, this might not be enough, according to Republican strategists.
By avoiding substantive criticism of Trump, candidates are failing to present an argument as to why he shouldn't be the nominee, strategists explained.
"You're not going to win over the people who like Trump — they're already voting for him if they like him," Geller claimed. He added that while many voters are fond of DeSantis, for example, they also like Trump, and they haven't been presented a case for why they should abandon him.
"What we're seeing is that it is not strategically expedient to not criticize Trump and then expect people to vote for you because of that. It doesn't appear to be happening," he said.
GOP strategist Susan Del Percio agreed, noting, "The path that many candidates have taken is to be the alternative to Trump. Well, it is hard to be the alternative to Trump if Trump is still in the race."
She advised that "candidates should focus on changing the political landscape in states like New Hampshire, which has open primaries," to allow for participation and perhaps a boost from nonaffiliated voters.
"Having it both ways is a nonstarter, and it's perplexing to see that strategy deployed," fellow Republican strategist Chip Felkel added.
"If Trump is OK, why should they vote for Haley or anyone else?" he asked.
For him, the bottom line is, "You can't be half-pregnant. You have to run against him and run hard if you are a serious candidate and contender."
None of these candidates, said managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics Kyle Kondik, are controlling their own destiny. "I think most of the candidates are hoping someone or something brings down Donald Trump without them being the one who is seen as holding the knife in that effort," he speculated.
"It strikes me as a difficult position — you need to beat someone, but you’re not willing to actually take them on directly yourself," he said.
For all other GOP candidates, in order to win, "they need to succeed spectacularly in the campaign AND they also need Trump to fall off," Kondik said. "But because of the way many of them have chosen to campaign, they do not want to be active agents in a potential Trump collapse. So in the most important aspect of the campaign -- how Trump does -- they are basically bystanders."
According to Republican strategist David Kochel, candidates are conflating differentiating themselves from Trump with being anti-Trump, "which feels to each of them to be political malpractice."
But, he explained, "unless they get to the direct contrast, what’s the point of running against him unless you’re waiting for someone else to do something or for a jury to convict him of a felony."
Del Percio predicted that this reluctance to challenge Trump will play out on the Republican National Committee primary debate stage as well. "With the exception of Chris Christie, it is unlikely anyone will take Trump directly on the debate stage next month," she said.
Kondik noted that "the most vocal anti-Trump Republicans, like Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie, do not appear to have any path to the nomination themselves."
At the end of the day, however, strategists aren't sure that a path to beating Trump and winning the nomination exists at all.
"While there is a big anti-Trump vote out there, it is doubtful that it can be enough to beat Trump," Del Percio said. She suggested that Trump's downfall might only come from "a self-inflicted mistake of huge proportions," if it comes at all.
The Trump alternative path exists in the primary, but some strategists said it doesn't end in the presidency in any scenario.
One GOP operative who has worked on similar campaigns said, “There is no path to the Republican nomination as an anti-Trump candidate. Politics is always about addition. You have your base and your following, then you grow it." He further pointed to examples of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) as electoral successes who didn't necessarily embrace Trump.
"All in all, it probably just shows how strong Trump is within the party that the other candidates have to handle him with kid gloves in this way," said Kondik.
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Less than six months from Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, no other Republican has been able to chip away at Trump's lead. Nationally, Trump still leads the field with the support of more than half of Republicans. He further has double-digit leads over each primary opponent.
And as the former president is hit with federal indictments and target letters, sympathy for him and outrage toward the Department of Justice only seem to increase, cementing his lead among Republicans.