There are only 19 days until the Iowa caucuses, the first nominating elections in the GOP primary season next year. But despite campaigning for a good portion of 2023, much remains the same among the Republican hopefuls vying to become their party's next standard-bearer.
Former President Donald Trump remains the undisputed front-runner in the race, polling far above his rivals, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
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A RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls shows Trump at 51.3%, more than 30 percentage points above DeSantis at 18.6%, Haley at 16.1%, Ramaswamy at 5.9%, Christie at 3.7%, and Hutchinson at 0.7%.
Trump is set to barnstorm Iowa in January with campaign events in at least four cities, including Ankeny, Sioux City, Clinton, and Newton. The former president is hoping a strong showing during the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses will thwart DeSantis's campaign and propel him into the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.
DeSantis has staked his campaign viability on winning the Iowa caucuses, even going as far as to visit all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State. But recent headlines regarding staff departures from his affiliated super PAC Never Back Down have distracted from these efforts. A report from the New York Times on Sunday suggested that some DeSantis allies were attempting to prepare the Florida governor for the end of his campaign, which DeSantis's team disputed.
Conventional wisdom suggests that three tickets, or three viable campaigns, will emerge from the Iowa caucuses. With Trump's advantageous lead, DeSantis is fending off a surging Haley for second place in the field. Yet some GOP strategists claim that as long as DeSantis performs decently, his campaign can continue through New Hampshire.
"I don't think he needs to have an outright win," said Steve Hilding, a Republican strategist and vice president of political consulting firm McShane. "I think as long as DeSantis is staying relatively competitive over the first few contests, it doesn't necessarily mean an end for his campaign."
"If he wins second place and defeats Nikki Haley ... he'll claim that as a victory and will probably go on to New Hampshire under that circumstance just because the threshold to stay in the race is so low for him at this point," said Matt Dole, a Republican political consultant based in Ohio.
But Haley's backers are hoping that a second-place finish in Iowa could propel her to a strong lead over DeSantis as the Trump alternative candidate in the primary. The billionaire Charles Koch-linked Americans for Prosperity Action, which endorsed Haley's 2024 bid late last month, is expected to spend much of the $70 million it raised for political races on Haley.
DeSantis's campaign slammed the organization's support of Haley in an email sent out earlier this month, saying, "Wall Street is going all in on Nikki Haley in Iowa, spending $70 million to buy a 'strong second' for her in the Hawkeye State."
Haley is also heavily banking on a strong finish in New Hampshire, where she has the backing of the popular Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who declined a 2024 run but is working to block Trump from the nomination. Her campaign released an ad on Tuesday touting Sununu's endorsement.
“She’s a leader who builds people up. She’s a ‘Live Free Or Die’ Republican who understands fiscal responsibility and individual liberty,” Sununu says in the ad. “She’s a new generation of conservative leadership who can help leave behind the chaos and the drama of the past.”
Haley will face some competition from Christie, who has snubbed the Hawkeye State and opted to bank his campaign viability on New Hampshire. But the Sununu endorsement likely will detract from the former New Jersey governor's efforts in the Granite State.
Ramaswamy, once seen as a rising star in the primary, faced setbacks this week when his campaign announced it is cutting all TV ad spending. His campaign claimed TV ad spending was "antiquated" in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
"Our spending levels haven’t changed — we’re just following the data," said Tricia McLaughlin, Ramaswamy's campaign spokeswoman. "We are focused on bringing out the voters we’ve identified — best way to reach them is using addressable advertising, mail, text, live calls and doors to communicate with our voters on Vivek’s vision for America, making their plan to caucus and turning them out."
"Get ready for a major upset on Jan. 15 and good luck to the political consultants who are reliant on traditional ad spending to line their pockets," McLaughlin said.
The move comes a month after Ramaswamy had announced an eight-figure ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire, which the campaign then claimed was "just the beginning." And just one week ago, Ramaswamy bragged he would "win" the Iowa caucuses.
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"We're going to deliver a shock to the system," Ramaswamy said. "I think because I'm a new candidate with a different base of support, I think we're going to win the Iowa caucus."
Yet nationally, Trump is still the heavy favorite at 62.5%, according to a RealClearPolitics national poll average, followed by DeSantis at 11.3%, Haley at 11%, Ramaswamy at 4%, Christie at 3.3%, and Hutchinson at 0.8%. Eligible candidates will face off again on the debate stage on Jan. 10 in Des Moines, Iowa, although Trump will likely snub the event.